Chris Dell's Week 4 Player Props

By Chris Dell

@MaddJournalist

It's that time! NFL Week 4 kickoff is officially less than 12 hours around the corner, and we're ready to attack the soft player prop market once again. Each week on the Betting Predators podcast I will give out 2-3 of my favorite player props that I'm betting, but will often include other ones I'm either liking or leaning to at the time of recording. Things can often change throughout the week with injuries, lines moves, etc., which might make my position stronger or weaker on a specific bet. Having said that, I will do my best every weekend to highlight my strongest plays and track our record week by week.

Editor's note: I made the following player prop bets already this week using betonline.ag's player prop builder tool. Unfortunately, with this offshore book, they are known to not offer unders on various players and props. This being the case, you'll notice a lot of my props below are on overs. These over props, however, strongly correlate with my Week 4 fantasy rankings, which you can find here.

• Chris' Overall Prop Record:  20-8
• Sleepy J's Bonus Prop Record: 2-0
• Total Record: 22-8

• (NEW) Devin Singletary: Over 57.5 rushing yards (buy up to 62.5) - News just dropped around 3:05 p.m. that rookie RB Zach Moss has been ruled out for the Bills-Raiders games and shout out to the Hitman for tweeting this when it was still 56.5. The Raiders already have one of the soft run defenses in the NFL, allowing 250 total rushing yards to the Patriots in Week 3, 112 yards to the Saints in Week 2 and 129 yards to the Panthers in Week 1. With Moss out, we saw Singletary earn a season-high 13 carries for 71 yards and that was in a game where he lost rushing opportunities in the second half due to the Rams making their big comeback and actually taking a fourth-quarter lead. I expect even more positive game script for the Bills in this contest, especially against a depleted Raiders offense relying on Zay Jones and Nelson Agholor to serve as their vertical threats down the field. I also played a half unit personally on Singletary over 19.5 receiving yards, but the main priority should be the rushing yards total here because of the projected game script and increase in volume/carry share due to the Moss injury. I expect this number to approach 70 fast and possibly creep towards 75.

• (NEW) James Robinson: Over 16.5 receiving yards (buy up to 17.5) - I mentioned this today on our Betting Predators Sunday morning live stream Q&A with Sleepy, is that this number was simply too low and I had already bet it Saturday night as I was writing the first version of this article. I've decided to make it a late addition while looking at the fact that Robinson has cleared this number in all three games this season and this is a game where the Jaguars are projected to be trailing, or at least in a neutral game script, against the Cincinnati Bengals. This is simply just a play on volume, as Robinson, despite a hefty share of his team's running back carries, has also seen 10 targets in the last two games and has the ability to clear this low yardage total on just one catch in this game.​

• (NEW) Robbie Anderson: Over 4.5 receptions (buy up to 5) - Robby Anderson had a relatively "down week" in Week 3 and still cleared this total, going for 5-55 on five targets in a game where the Panthers didn't need to throw much (see DJ Moore below). In a game where I expect the Carolina Panthers to push the pace and put up points, I expect Anderson to continue his 1B role to Moore's 1A here against a relatively soft Arizona secondary. Anderson is tops in catches (20) and yards (278) though three games for Teddy Bridgewater this year, and in the two games where Carolina trailed he combined for an impressive 15 receptions for 223 yards on 18 targets. Anderson will also benefit from the shadow coverage most likely from Patrick Peterson on DJ Moore here.

• Stefon Diggs: Over 5.5 receptions (buy up to 6) - Too much has been made of the "Let Russ Cook" movement. The Bills have been letting Josh Allen cook just as much in the kitchen as Russ, if not more, and because of that Allen ranks second in the NFL in passing yards (1,038) right behind Dak Prescott and more than 100 yards ahead the aforementioned Wilson. Enter Stefon Diggs. Coming into 2020, many pundits and fantasy analysts alike faded Diggs because Josh Allen in the past had simply failed to support a viable WR1. Boy how the times have changed, and fast. Diggs leads the second most pass-happiest NFL attack in targets (28), receiving yards (288) and receptions (20), and even against one of the toughest shadow matchups against Jalen Ramsey in Week 3, he was still able to haul in a 4-49-1 line and even had a touchdown called back due to a fluky penalty. Minus said penalty, Diggs would've posted a Week 3 line similar to Weeks 1-2, where he ripped the Jets for 8-86 and burned the Dolphins for 8-153-1. I'm not seeing any yardage numbers available right now for Diggs at Betonline, but if it comes out below 70 on Sunday before kickoff, I will pounce on that prop as well. Diggs has just as juicy of a  matchup in Week 4 against a depleted Raiders secondary. Fantasy-wise, the Raiders rank in the bottom three of the NFL in points allowed to receivers despite facing a Michael Thomas-less Saints in Week 2 and the Patriots in Week 3. In Week 1 they allowed 6-114-1 to Robbie Anderson, who is essentially a "Stefon Diggs Lite" in the intermediate-to-deep game.

• Darrell Henderson: Over 71.5 rushing yards (buy up to 73.5) - I'm doubling down on Dan Rivera's prop bet on our Betting Predators NFL Week 4 Preview podcast. Now that we know Cam Akers has been officially ruled out for Week 4, we are officially locking this prop. Henderson is averaging a ridiculous 5.7 yards per carry in 2020, good for third in the NFL among running backs with at least 30 total carries, trailing only Dalvin Cook Aaron Jones' 6.1 yards per tote. Henderson ran roughshod over a solid Bills defense for a 20-114-1 line in a game where the Rams trailed from nearly end to end. Add a positive game script and better matchup in Week 4, and I wouldn't be surprised if Henderson tops the century mark for the second straight week. Henderson has a touch or a target on 60.3% of his snaps, according to Sharp Football Analysis, which leads all RB's averaging more than 20 snaps per game. It might've taken a while to happen folks, but the Henderson Show is here to stay.

• Keenan Allen: Over 4.5 receptions AND Over 62.5 receiving yards (buy up to 5.5 and 66.5) - Now THAT is the Keenan Allen we all know. With Justin Herbert under center, Allen saw an absolutely insane 19 targets in Week 3 and the betting market implies that Chargers will be trailing yet again in Week 4 and needing to throw plenty against a pass-funnel defense in Tampa Bay. Allen now has 29 (!) targets in two games with Herbert, and while we surely can't expect an average of 14.5 targets per week, I would definitely expect Allen to flirt with double-digit targets again in Week 4 and avoid a shadow matchup with Carlton Davis by lining up in the slot like he does best. Allen is averaging 10 catches, 14.5 targets and 114 yards per game with Herbert under center while playing in two games that were decided by less than a touchdown. If the Chargers fall behind by double digits or more, watch out. While we don't usually think of slot receivers as having the highest of fantasy ceilings, I think Allen bucks that trend here. I'm locking him into DFS lineups on DraftKings this week because of their full PPR scoring format, and also considering stacks with some combinations of Herbert, Henry and Ekeler. We know the volume is extremely concentrated in L.A., so let's capitalize on what we know.

• Austin Ekeler: Over 38.5 receiving yards (buy up to 41.5) - This number has trickled down throughout the weekend after it was released around 49.5 when Betonline put out their Week 4 player prop numbers on Friday. While 49.5 would've been a little too rich for my blood, I'm all about the current receiving yard number of 38.5 for Ekeler, who is arguably just as good a receiving back, if not better, than Alvin Kamara himself. Ekeler has posted stout receiving lines of 4-55 and 11-84 in consecutive games with Justin Herbert under center, and the Buccaneers are notorious for funneling targets to running backs. Tack on a negative game script (Tampa Bay is currently -7.5) and an elite Buccaneers rush defense, and Herbert will surely be looking towards his "big three" early and often with easy check downs and short crossing routes to Ekeler, Allen and Henry. Tampa Bay has allowed receiving lines of 5-51-1 to Kamara in Week 1, 13-117-0 to Mike Davis & Co in Week 2 and 6-43-0 Melvin Gordon & Co in Week 3. I wouldn't be surprised to see Ekeler double this number.

• DK Metcalf: Over 72.5 receiving yards (buy up to 73.5) - The market just continues to be behind on the DK Metcalf 2020 breakout. The Ole Miss standout has now posted lines of 4-95-1, 4-92-1 and 4-110-1 through three weeks this season, and he shows absolutely no sign of slowing down. Metcalf can pay this prop off in two catches or less. Going up against a pamper-soft Dolphins secondary without Byron Jones in Week 4, he might beat this prop by halftime. Jump on the sub-80 yard DK props now while you can, because when the market catches up, you'll never see a 60s or 70s number again. This is nothing new, either. Over his last six games dating back to 2019, Metcalf is averaging 99.5 receiving yards per game, and yes, Russ is absolutely cooking right now.

• DJ Moore: Over 65.5 receiving yards (buy up to 66.5) - Moore is the biggest buy low in all of fantasy football through three weeks, but that might not be the case anymore after Week 4, where his trade stock and season-long value is almost sure to soar. Moore's current receiving yards number is deflated because of a down line of 2-65 in Week 3 on only four targets. The Panthers didn't have to throw much in that game, however, and Moore spent much of the day lined up against stud DB Casey Hayward. Carolina now enters Week 4 as home dogs to one of the highest tempo offenses in the Arizona Cardinals and Moore receives a much softer matchup against Patrick Peterson, who is seemingly a shell of his former self. Moore's 25%+ target share and near 50% air yards share in this offense shows that he is still clearly being used as the number one option in this Carolina passing game.

• Darius Slayton: Under 50.5 receiving yards (buy down to 50) - Last week we eked out a victory with our Slayton over 47.5 yards prop, but getting there sure wasn't pretty. Week 4 does Slayton no favors, with Jalen Ramsey coming into the fold and likely shadowing Slayton all game. Ramsey held the aforementioned Diggs to just 4-49-1, and we can all agree here that while Slayton is a talented wideout, he is nowhere near the level of Diggs' overall pure talent as a route runner. Aaron Donald and company will be wreaking havoc on the Giants bottom-dwelling offensive line in this matchup, which means Daniel Jones will have little to no time to air it out downfield. The Rams sport the third greatest DL/OL advantage in Week 4, according to Establish The Run's Brandon Thorne, and will force Jones to look for check down options throughout this contest to the likes of Engram, Tate, Freeman and Lewis. Slayton struggled to break 50 yards in a cake matchup with a "JV" 49ers secondary in Week 3, and I simply don't see how he breaks that number in his toughest matchup of 2020.

• Kenny Golladay: Over 4.5 receptions (buy up to 5) - Golladay had a relatively quiet 2020 debut in Week 3, returning from a hamstring injury to post a solid yet unspectacular 6-57-1 line against the Arizona Cardinals. What some might overlook in this contest, however, is that the Lions played from ahead for nearly all of this game and Matthew Stafford simply didn't need to air it out very often. Enter a Week 4 matchup against an absolutely depleted Saints secondary that will be without stud DB Marshon Lattimore, as well as Janoris Jenkins and DE Marcus Davenport. All in all, Golladay was able to post a solid line last week, in his first game back from injury, against a mediocre Patrick Peterson matchup, and this week he gets the Saints' third-string and fourth-string defensive backs. I also like his receiving yards total in this game (67.5), but in another game where the Lions have a chance to play from ahead, at home no less, I hesitate to give out another double dip prop here. Golladay ran a route on 80% of Detroit's dropbacks in Week 3 and also tallied a team-high seven targets. Give me his reception prop as a priority here, which at 4.5 is simply too low for the Lions' #1 wideout in a get-right spot and making his Ford Field 2020 home debut in Detroit.

• TJ Hockenson: Over 3.5 receptions AND Over 46.5 receiving yards (buy up to 4 and 48.5) - The prop numbers on TJ Hockenson this week simply don't make much sense to me. While I have seen a tightening of player prop numbers across the board each week this season, there are still soft spots galore if you look closely. This is the case for Mr. Hock, who has cleared both 3.5 receptions and 46.5 yards in three straight games to open 2020 and tied Golladay for a team lead in targets (7) in Week 3. The Saints defense has been one of the worst at defending tight ends this year, and with the New Orleans defensive cluster injuries that we mentioned previously, Stafford & Co will be feeling much less than pressure than usual in the pocket in this matchup. The Saints allowed 6-47 to Gronkowski/Howard in Week 1, 14-139 to Waller/Moreau/Witten in Week 2 and and 9-104 to Tonyan/Sternberger/Lewis in Week 3. Hockenson might lose a catch or two to backup tight end Jesse James, but the fact he saw a season-high 88.6% routes run per dropback in Week 3 is an encouraging sign for a tight end on the verge of a breakout year. Sign me up for #HockSzn in Week 3.

• Amari Cooper: Over 5.5 receptions (buy up to 6) - Another number that is simply too low. The Browns will be without Greedy Williams in this Week 4 tilt, and top DB Denzel is also coming in with a questionable tag after being limited in back-to-back practices to close out the week. Cooper, on the other hand, has benefitted immensely from the addition of CeeDee Lamb in the NFL Draft - as well as the growth of Michael Gallup as a legitimate deep threat - as defenses simply cannot shadow Cooper like they did in 2019. The Cowboys are using Cooper in creative ways in 2020, utilizing him in the slot, out wide and over the middle of the field to Dak's delight. He's averaging more than four targets per game compared to the next Cowboys wideout and has produced with those targets, posting lines of 10-81, 6-100 and 9-86 in Weeks 1-3. I'm simply banking on volume in this one, in addition to betting on the clear top option in one of the NFL's pass-happiest offenses. Don't overthink it.

• Tyler Higbee: Under 4.5 receptions (buy down to 4) - This one pains me, as I'm guilty of buying into the Tyler Higbee hype heading into 2020 fantasy football drafts. While I admit that I will be starting Higbee in two of my seven fantasy football teams this weekend, it's simply because I have no better options. This is a game where the Rams (-13.5) are favored big and expected to dominate from end to end. Because of the expected game script for Los Angeles here, in addition to the fact that the Rams boast the NFL's run-heaviest offense in neutral/positive situations, I simply cannot expect Higbee, and the Rams passing offense in general, to be very involved here. This prop is partially correlated with our Henderson Over 71.5 rushing yards prop, as we expect L.A. to run the ball and control clock for much of this ball game. Higbee ran a route on only 51.5% of dropbacks in Week 3, which ranked near the bottom of the league, and his routes have dropped with each game this season as Gerald Everett gets healthier and more involved in this offense. He is a better bet to score a touchdown and give you fantasy value in the end zone rather than with his receptions and receiving yards. Higbee has just 10 catches through three games and has three catches or less in two of three games. If he scores a touchdown or two in this one, do your best to sell high next week to a TE-needy owner.

• *Sleepy J's Bonus Best Bet Prop: Tyler Boyd - Over 58.5 receiving yards (buy up to 64.5)