By Chris Dell
Please Note: The player prop lines below were available at the time they were given to our NFL 2021 In-Season Package subscribers on our Betting Predators Private Discord Channel. In order to get an alert the moment after I place one of my prop bets and get the best line available, I highly recommend signing up for our in-season package, which gives you access to my best bet player props + DFS top plays for every primetime game AND every Sunday main slate. You'll also get access to our private Discord, as well as our Betting Predators' NFL Power Ratings, Lookahead Line Forecasts and Player Prop Podcast Article/Written Recaps. Lastly, you'll notice that a lot of my best bet player props also strongly correlate with my weekly fantasy football rankings, which you can find here. Any questions? Hit me on Twitter @MaddJournalist:
- Chris ' Overall 2021 Props Column Record: 42-44
- Chris' Overall 2020 Props Column Record: 159-111
(2.0) Mills UNDER 198.5 Pass Yds @ MGM -120
This was one of our favorite props last week and the rookie Davis Mills why we should keep the faith in betting his unders all season long. Mills has just 7 (!) passing yards at the half and finished the game with 86 in a 40-0 shutout loss to the Buffalo Bills. This week doesn't get much easier, either, with known rookie QB killer Bill Hoodie Belichik coming to town coming off a loss Tom Brady and motivated as ever to give his team/franchise a statement win. To add insult to injury, the Patriots’ DL comes into this game ranking 12th in adjusted sack rate while the Texans’ OL ranks 32nd in pass block win rate and 28th in pressure percentage, according to Establish The Run. Matt Judon will mostly square off against former Patriot Marcus Cannon who ranks third-worst among tackles in PBWR (ESPN). With Cannon’s protecting the aforementioned Mills and his lowly 10.7% sack rate, we could see yet another blowout and sub-100 yard performance. This line should be around 150 in my humble opinion, and I have no problem playing it down to 169.5 for a half unit despite the fact we missed on the opener of 207.5 here. It's quite possible Mills get benched at the half. Full unit buy price: 189.5
Henry OVER 14.5 Rec Yds ~ AND ~ OVER 23.5 Rush Att @ Caesars -125 / DraftKings -115
Henry has caught at least two passes in all four games this season and is averaging 3.8 targets per game, seeing a complete changed role within this 2021 version of the. With a point spread of less than +6/-6 we can expect a relatively neutral game script here as well (maybe even a negative script) on the road at Jacksonville in a divisional rivalry game. With AJ Brown back at WR and McNichols lining up less out wide as he did in Week 4, I expect that to give a few added routes to Henry as well, as he's cleared this receiving total with ease each week this season and can top it on one catch alone. For a guy who's gotten no less than 28 carries in each game since Week 2 I'd also prefer to bet on the NFL's top bellcow back to be leaned on heavily in this aforementioned divisional road tilt. Henry last season saw 26/25 carries vs the Jags and with the Titans looking to put their stamp on a weak AFC South Divisional lead I believe Tennessee wild continue to ride Henry to victories. One unit on each prop for me here. Full unit buy price: 18.5 rec yds and 24.5 rush att
DJ Moore OVER 5.5/6.5/7.5 Rec @ Caesars -140 / BetOnline +131 / BetOnline +320
While I really dislike playing anything above -115 juice (this one is a cowardly -140), this is where we go to the prop builder tool to take advantage of some juice in our favor. I'm splitting 1.25 units into half on 5.5, half on 6.5 and a quarter unit on 7.5 in one of the most fantasy friendly environments on the main slate for Week 5, a game in which could shoot out with Philly entering Carolina with a sneaky good defensive line and the Panthers offensive line ranking 26th in the league. Over the last two weeks, the Panthers’ situation-neutral pass rate has jumped from 53% to 60%, and on the season they rank ninth in Establish The Run's pass rate above expectation and Moore himself has seen 11 targets in three straight games for an alpha-esque 30.7% target share in this offense. With no DB to scare us and short-area targets peppered to Moore throughout this game, I wouldn't be surprised to see him flirt with double-digit receptions here (which is +933 on the offshore prop builder tool as of this writing Sunday morning, if you're so inclined). Full unit buy price: 6.5 receptions at -115
AJ Brown OVER 50.5 Rec Yds @ Caesars -115
One of the most explosive receivers in the NFL is BACK with an air yards "buy-low" share to put him in an absolute smash spot for Week 5 against one of the worst secondaries in the league in the Jacksonville Jaguars. With lame duck Urban Meyer still manning the cardboard fort, this putrid secondary is embarrasingly yielding the league’s fourth-most yards to wide receivers (877) and might jump to bottom two after this week if Tannehill can put a few dimes into AJ's breadbasket. Here's to hoping Brown's DFS ownership doesn't get too out of control, as I know this lean has been steamed quite high since we played it at 50.5. Full unit buy price: 58.5, half unit to 66.5
DeVonta Smith OVER 59.5 Rec Yds @ FD -114
Another one of our favorite plays last week resulted in an early first-half cash and I have no problem going right back to the Eagles' receiving well in Week 5 facing a Jaycee Horn-less Panthers secondary in what we've already mentioned here could be a back-and-forth shootout type of ball game. Smith's 10 targets led Philly last week in addition to pacing the team in snaps and routes run. He sports a healthy 23% target share in a pass-happy offense too, an offense that has played in trailing scripts over the past two games and completely abandoned the run (91% and 82% pass) in the process. The Eagles have still thrown at around at a 70% situation-neutral clip over the last two weeks and rank first in situation-neutral pace on the season while the Panthers' opponents, on the other hand, have operated at the fourth-fastest pace. Eagles games are tied with Cowboys contests for the ninth-most combined plays (127.8), and Philadelphia is up to fifth in no-huddle rate (17%). Need I say more? Full unit buy price: 66.5 rec yards
Damien Harris OVER 14.5 Rush Att @ Caesars -115
Week 5's poster boy for our player props column finds himself in the best possible situation an RB could be in despite the fact he's missing nearly his entire offensive line. Houston has allowed the sixth-most rushing yards and nearly 5 yards per carry to running backs so far this season, in addition to allowing 151.3 total yards to opposing RB's. I do lean to the over on his yards, but due to the cluster OL injuries for New England I'll put my bet on the carries instead here. In Weeks 1-2 (either positive or neutral game scripts) Harris averaged 19.5 rushing attempts per game and could stand to see even more work with JJ Taylor being inactive after his Week 4 fumble and the rookie Rhamondre Stevenson making his first active appearance since losing a fumble of his own in Week 1. Full unit buy price: 15.5 rush att
Trey Lance OVER 40.5 Rush Yds @ Caesars -110
The sample size is small (nonexistent even?), I get it, but Lance is truly a one of a kind quarterback playing in a one of a kind offensive system with Kyle Shanahan at the helm. A few fourth-quarter scrambles by Lance alone in Week 4 saw him clear this number and show his extreme fantasy ceiling and now faces an Arizona rush defense ranking 31st in the league in Week 5, according to PFF. San Francisco's offense has moved quicker on a situation-neutral basis over the last two weeks (16th) versus the first two (28th), per Establish The Run, and their games have averaged the eighth-most combined snaps (128) and seventh-most total points (52.3) to boot. When San Francisco met Arizona last year, we again saw elevated snap/play totals and expect both teams to run a ton of plays for this one with some designed runs mixed in for the rookie QB Lance, who ran 15 times for 143 yards in his last college appearance and 30 times for 166 yards (!) in his SECOND-T0-LAST college appearance, a 28-20 FCS Championship victory over the fighting Ben DiNucci's of James Madison. OK, that's kind of irrelevant, I know, but funny as hell nonetheless. I'd personally play this close to 50 yards and wouldn't be surprised to see the kid see 10+ rushes in this NFC West showdown. Full unit buy price: 47.5
Winston UNDER 25.5 Pass Att @ Caesars -110
Fun fact: the New Orleans Saints "offense" (must be put in quotation marks with this team right now) has had 6 total snaps in 2-minute offense (!) for the season and is by far one of worst volume offenses in NFL. Enter our man Famous Jameis, who still yet to throw more than 23 times in a game this season despite the Saints losing 26-7 to the Panthers back in Week 2 (22 pass attempts) and going to overtime against the Giants in Week 4 (23 pass attempts). Sean Payton is doing his best to hide the ineptitude of skill in this offense and is actually doing a halfway decent job of it by cutting down Winston's volume. Add in the fact that Taysom Hill is always a threat to steal both throws and snaps, and I like the cushion were getting here despite Washington's secondary being one of the worst in the NFL this year. Full unit buy price: 23.5 pass att
Fields UNDER 30.5 Pass Att @ Caesars +100
Fields has now racked up a whopping (kidding) 20 and 17 pass attempts in his first two NFL starts and now faces a Raiders defense ranking second overall in the league in coverage grade according to PFF. Fields, if he has success through the air, will do so with efficiency and DEEP throws (arm talent is legit down the field) and not necessarily racking up volume in attempts in the shorter areas of the field. At +100 odds and a low game total of 45.5, I'm more than happy to betting on Fields to NOT have 10+ attempts pass his career high in attempts so far in this game. If you can get anything near -110 or -115 at this number, I like that too. Full unit buy price: 29.5 pass att
Tavon Austin UNDER 23.5 Rec Yds @ Caesars -110
Be honest, you did not think Tavon Austin was still in the league before last Thursday's game against the Cincinnati Bengals. Austin admirably filled in for the injured DJ Chark and played on roughly 70% of the snaps against my Bungals, BUT, despite all that burn, we saw Austin used in a more short-area/gadgety role to the tune of one catch for eight yards on three targets. I expect newly-acquired Dan Arnold and maybe even second-year wideout Tyron Johnson to mix in a little bit more here with the Jaguars having nearly 10 days to adjust to life without Chark, in addition to involving the backs (Robinson/Hyde/Dare) and the main WR's (Jones/Shenault) much more in this offense. Full unit buy price: 21.5 rec yds
Gesicki OVER 44.5 Rec Yds @ FD -110
With DeVante Parker and Will Fuller both OUT for this game, it's going to be a heavy mix of Jaylen Waddle and Mike Gesicki taking turns on targets from Jacoby Brissett against the pass-funnel defense of Tampa Bay. We'll see a lot of Gesicki in the slot and running out wide in this one in what essentially could be him playing WR1 for this offense. Throw in the bonus that Tampa Bay games average the league’s most combined plays (133) and the second-most total points (56.8), and we've got even more to like on an over play here. Gesicki has seen at least six targets in three straight games and is coming off back to back contests in which he's piled up receiving lines of 12-10-86 and 6-5-57. This could be a career day for the young TE out of Penn State who essentially is a WR anyways (call him Kyle Pitts Lite). I'll be all over Gesicki in DFS this week assuming his ownership levels don't get out of control after Parker's news of being ruled inactive early this morning. Full unit buy price: 53.5)
Other Plays I Bet For Week 5:
(0.75) Hunt OVER 10.5 Carries @ Caesars -105
(0.75) Chubb OVER 16.5 Carries @ Caesars -130
(0.75) Toney OVER 4.5 Rec @ Pinnacle +110
(0.5) Darrell Williams OVER 16.5 Rush Yds @ PB -115
(0.5) Conner OVER 34.5 Rush Yds
(0.5) Edmonds OVER 40.5 Rush Yds @ DK -115
(0.5) Renfrow OVER 4.5 Rec @ DK -110
(0.5) Mills UNDER 0.5 Pass TD's @ Caesars +185
(0.5) Malcolm Brown UNDER 7.5 Carries @ Caesars -125
(0.5) Aaron Rodgers UNDER 24.5 Completions @ Caesars -130
(0.5) Firkser UNDER 26.5 Rec Yds @ PointBet -115
(0.5) CEH OVER 51.5 Rush Yds @ DK -115
(0.5) CEH OVER 12.5 Carries @ Caesars +105