By Chris Dell
Author's note: The following player prop lines are used from either BetOnline, DraftKings or FanDuel.
- Chris' Overall Prop Column Record: 159-111
- Sleepy's Overall Bonus Prop Record: 8-7
Weekly Prop Column Record (Chris + Sleepy):
- Week 1: 0-0
- Week 2: 10-4
- Week 3: 12-4
- Week 4: 9-8
- Week 5: 10-7
- Week 6: 9-11
- Week 7: 10-12
- Week 8: 6-7
- Week 9: 9-8
- Week 10: 12-6
- Week 11: 9-7
- Week 12: 11-5
- Week 13: 16-5
- Week 14: 11-8
- Week 15: 10-10
- Week 16: 11-2
- Week 17: 12-14
- Total: 167-118 (58.6%)
Weekly Prop Podcast Record (Chris' Record Only):
- Week 1: 1-2
- Week 2: 2-1
- Week 3: 0-0
- Week 4: 3-0
- Week 5: 2-1
- Week 6: 0-0
- Week 7: 2-0
- Week 8: 0-1
- Week 9: 0-1
- Week 10: 1-1
- Week 11: 0-1
- Week 12: 0-0
- Week 13: 0-0
- Week 14: 1-1
- Week 15: 1-1
- Week 16: 0-0
- Week 17: 1-0
- Total = 14-10 (58.3%)
Podcast + Article Picks (Chris' Record Only):
- 173-121 (58.8%)
JK Dobbins - Over 61.5 rushing yards (DraftKings -150): Ladies & gentlemen, get your popcorn ready for the world premier of “Ravens vs. Titans III.” The highest O/U of wild card weekend (54.5) pits two of the league’s dynamic playmakers against each other in Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry in this spot. But what about the young kid they call JK? Dobbins has made a case for himself as one of the league’s most dynamic playmakers as of late, rushing for 82.5 yards per game over the past six weeks as Baltimore has cruised to five consecutive wins. It all started in Week 11 against these same Tennessee Titans for Dobbins, who has since turned in 70+ rushing yards in four of the Ravens’ past six games. Dobbins has now rushed for 64 or more yards in five of his last six outings with nearly 55% of his yardage coming on “explosive plays.” The Titans, on the other side, rank 23rd in “explosive rushing yards” allowed (57.6 per game), which is the worst mark amongst all remaining 14 NFL playoff teams. Dobbins’ explosive run rate trails only that of Nick Chubb (60.9%) among running backs with 100+ carries this season, and the Ravens have shown a commitment to feed him the rock over the past two months of the season. Dobbins has tallied double-digit carries in six straight games, a stretch which includes seven rushing touchdowns. The Titans have been giving up gobs of yardage over the past month to opposing backs (5.9 yards per carry allowed), and Dobbins himself over his six-game run to close the season is averaging a more-than-impressive 6.43 yards per tote. Although I liked the Titans getting the +3.5/+4.5 earlier in the week, there’s no denying the shootout potential that this game possesses, and Dobbins seems to only be getting better with each game under his belt. Look for the Ravens to let the rook take pressure off Lamar early and often as Baltimore attempts to take control of this game and keep the ball out of the Big Dog Henry’s hands.
Mark Andrews - Over 55.5 receiving yards (BetOnline -114): You think the Titans are bad against running backs now? Wait and see how they perform against tight ends. Mike Vrabel’s bunch closed the year ranking a lowly 30th of 32 teams in catch rate allowed per target to tight ends (74.5%) and 30th in yards per target to tight ends (8.33). Andrews himself racked up a team-high in targets (7), catches (5) and yards (96) in these teams’ previous meeting in Week 11, averaging a robust 19.2 yards per catch and hauling in a long reception of 31 yards that also went for a score. The Ravens’ defacto WR1 - although he’s listed as a “tight end” on the depth chart - sports an elite 34% target share and 36% air yards share since Week 14 and benefits greatly against Tennessee’s zone-heavy defensive coverage. Andrews’ target share actually rises to 37% when Lamar faces zone defenses, averaging a whopping 3.05 yards per route run in the process. Andrews has now tallied 61 or more receiving yards in five of his past six games, and if you remove Week 17, a game in which Baltimore essentially didn’t need to throw in the second half, it would be six in a row with 61+ yards and 5+ catches. I lean towards the over 4.5 catches here as well, although I prefer the yardage total for an explosive talent like Andrews who has recorded a catch of at least 20 yards in four straight games (Weeks 13-16) and is showing elite level type of chemistry with his quarterback.
Michael Thomas - Over 5.5 receptions AND Over 69.5 receiving yards (DraftKings -112): This might be my favorite player prop of the weekend, as we get an extremely soft player prop total of 5.5 receptions for the NFL’s all-time leader in single-season receptions. If you remove the “Kendall Hinton game” we’ve all come to endear in our hearts, then you’ll notice that Thomas has recorded catch totals of 9, 9 and 8 in his past three full games played, in addition to receiving yard totals of 104, 105, 84. The Bears defense might’ve looked like a tough matchup on paper to start the season, but they actually rank 26th in yards per target (9.6) and 29th in passer rating on throws to opposing wide receivers this season. Thomas piled up 131 yards on nine catches in 2019 against these Bears, a season in which he had under 5.5 catches in just two of 16 games played. The Saints made it a point to wait until the playoffs to bring Thomas back, and with the stud wideout seemingly at full health - in addition to Alvin Kamara just coming off the COVID list - I expect to see MT involved frequently in this wild card contest and operating both in and out of the slot.
Allen Robinson - Over 70.5 receiving yards (DraftKings -112): The loss of talented rookie wideout Darnell Mooney for this contest leaves Mitch Trubisky with a severe lack of pass-catching talent outside of A-Rob for this contest. Robinson has totaled receiving lines of 6-87-1 and 10-87-1 over his past two games against this Saints defense and his 29% targets share over the past month currently ranks fourth among all wide receivers to make the playoffs. Despite having both Marshon Lattimore and Janoris Jenkins in the backend, New Orleans still has seen the second-most yards and third-most receptions go to opposing wide receivers out of the 14 NFL playoff teams over the past two weeks. Calvin Ridley (5-108) and Justin Jefferson (6-85) had their way with this secondary in negative game scripts recently as well, and I expect the Bears as +10.5 road dogs to be throwing up a lot of junk time passes late here. Allen had a rare down game in Week 17 against the Green Bay Packers’ stout secondary yet has still seen 31 more targets than any other teammate on passes from Trubusky in 2020 (27.6% target share overall). Sporting a solid 25% slot snap rate, Robinson is the type of versatile WR1 that the Bears will need to manufacture touches for in order to keep pace in this wild card weekend matchup. A-Rob cleared this total in 7 of 8 games leading up to Week 17, with 74+ yards in five straight games from Weeks 12-16. The former Penn State product has seen 13 targets in every other game for the past six weeks, and he’s due for another double-digit target outing on Sunday. His $6,500 price tag on DraftKings also makes him an interesting mini-stack option with Michael Thomas, as both receivers could reasonably combine for 25 targets here.
Diontae Johnson - Over 63.5 receiving yards AND Over 6.5 receptions (FanDuel -112/DraftKings +111): Let the haters continue to bring up the drops and first-half benching on primetime against the Buffalo Bills. I’ll instead choose to focus on my guy Diontae finishing the year sixth overall in wide receiver targets (144) and netting double-digit targets in all 11 of his “non-injury/non-benching” games with Ben Roethlisberger under center. Despite Diontae’s drop issues earlier in the season, he has still been targeted 20 more times (!) than any fellow Steelers teammate this season by Big Ben and registered 8+ catches in five straight games where he played a full allotment of snaps between Weeks 11-16. Wide receivers are averaging a superb 10.5% more ppr fantasy points per game against Cleveland on average, making the Browns the sixth-best schedule-adjusted matchup to attack for opposing aerial attacks. Even with the uber-talented rookie Chase Claypool outpacing Diontae in air yards over the past month, Diontae actually has more “catchable air yards” than Claypool (295 to 252), a stat I brought up in my handicap of Stefon Diggs’ over 90.5 yards prop on Saturday. In games where Diontae has played at least 50% of the Steelers’ offensive snaps, he has seen target totals of 10, 13, 15, 10, 11, 16, 13, 12, 7, 13 and 14 targets. You simply don’t see target volume like that outside of literally only Davante Adams and Stefon Diggs, and if you ever saw one of them with a yardage prop total in the mid-to-low 60’s, we’d be firing on those overs without hesitation. Same reasoning goes for Diontae here, a soon-to-be third-year wideout that I will be targeting heavily in the early rounds of 2021 fantasy drafts. Forget the drops, trust the volume, and cash.
Rashard Higgins - Over 2.5 receptions AND Over 40.5 receiving yards (BetOnline -167/FanDuel -118): The real “Hollywood” wideout in these playoffs goes by the name of Rashard Higgins, who ever since OBJ went down for the season is tied for second on the Browns with 40 targets (16.9% target share) to go along with 26 catches and 436 yards. Higgins has been a 1A/1B option with Jarvis Landry over the past month of the season as well, posting three straight games of at least four catches and 68 yards from Weeks 14-16 and still put up 55 yards in Week 17 in a game that’s honestly hard to gauge due to the Browns getting all of their wide receivers back from the COVID list in one fell swoop. The Steelers’ Joe Haden still remains on the COVID list as of this writing (late Saturday night) and Higgins could be the Browns’ biggest beneficiary of that on the outside. The former Colorado State star wideout is averaging 4.5 receptions and 73.5 receiving yards per game over his last four outings and despite seeing 22 fewer targets than Landry during that span he still has more receiving yards than Landry overall. The Browns are +6 road dogs and are projected to be facing a negative game script against a Steelers defense without its top perimeter DB. Sign me up for the double dip here on a guy who has filled OBJ shoes admirably this season and has cleared 40 receiving yards now in 7 of 9 games and 55+ in four straight games. The receptions total is juiced extremely high for this prop, but if you can pay up or find a flat number of 3 receptions, I’d highly recommend that. I project Higgins for at least four catches on Sunday night.
Baker Mayfield - Under 235.5 passing yards (DraftKings -112): All the numbers point to Baker Mayfield being set up for an absolute house of horrors scene in his NFL playoff debut. The loss of both pro-bowl left guard Joel Bitonio (PFF’s most valuable ranked guard in 2020) and head coach/play-caller Kevin Stefanski will be tough for Baker to overcome here, in addition to the fact that first-time playoff quarterbacks in NFL history have gone 10-28 SU and 12-26 ATS against quarterbacks with playoff experience, according to Sharp Football Analysis. The under is hitting at a 29-9 in those quarterback playoff battles as well, and when you throw in the fact that Baker has never thrown for more than 200 yards in a single career game against Pittsburgh, I believe that we can confidently bet this under down to at least 230 in this game. Mayfield’s 4.5 YPA under pressure vs. 8.1 YPA in a clean pocket (-3.6 YPA difference) ranks 37th amongst eligible passers this season and the Steelers on the other hand rank first in the league pressure rate (32.%), sacks per pass attempt, QB knockdown percentage and pass rush win rate. They also rank third in blitz rate (40.3%), with DPOY frontrunner T.J. Watt finishing the 2020 season first overall in pressures and sacks. In his two games against Pittsburgh this season Mayfield was pressured on 34.5% of dropbacks and sacked at an 8.6% clip, compared to 25.4% and 3.8% in all other games while under pressure. His passer rating also dips from 13th to 33rd out of 42 eligible passers when going from a clean pocket to dealing with defensive pressure. Want more? Pittsburgh leads the league in sacks (56), QB hits (140), and is coming into this home contest fresh coming off a Week 17 game in which they gave many of their defensive starters a much-needed rest, especially after not technically having a bye week all season long. Mayfiekd is averaging 176.8 passing yards per game in five career matchups with his black-and-gold laden AFC North counterparts, completing just 57.9% of his passes in the process with five turnovers and 16 sacks taken. Watt and Stephon Tuitt are two of just four players with at least 70 pressure this season, with Cameron Heyward (62) not too far behind, according to Establish The Run’s Brandon Thorne. Heyward will be lined up against UDFA Michael Dunn, who will be filling in for Bitonio and playing on his sixth football team in as many years despite being listed as a tackle on the team’s roster. I’m trying to come up with more ways to tell you that Baker is going to get his ass straight bum rushed in Pittsburgh on Sunday, but honestly I think you get the picture here. My only hesitation to not playing more Steelers overs is that Cleveland’s offense simply won’t score enough points to push the pace in this divisional showdown.
Matchup Prop - Diontae Johnson more receiving yards than Jarvis Landry (DraftKings -112)
Pizza Bet Bonus Prop - Derrick Henry to score AND win (DraftKings +200)
Sleepy’s Best Bet Bonus Prop - Lamar Jackson Under 76.5 rushing yards (BetOnline +110)