By Chris Dell
Author's note: The following player prop lines are used from either BetOnline, DraftKings or FanDuel.
- Chris' Overall Prop Column Record: 159-111
- Sleepy's Overall Bonus Prop Record: 8-7
Weekly Prop Column Record (Chris + Sleepy):
- Week 1: 0-0
- Week 2: 10-4
- Week 3: 12-4
- Week 4: 9-8
- Week 5: 10-7
- Week 6: 9-11
- Week 7: 10-12
- Week 8: 6-7
- Week 9: 9-8
- Week 10: 12-6
- Week 11: 9-7
- Week 12: 11-5
- Week 13: 16-5
- Week 14: 11-8
- Week 15: 10-10
- Week 16: 11-2
- Week 17: 12-14
- Total: 167-118 (58.6%)
Weekly Prop Podcast Record (Chris' Record Only):
- Week 1: 1-2
- Week 2: 2-1
- Week 3: 0-0
- Week 4: 3-0
- Week 5: 2-1
- Week 6: 0-0
- Week 7: 2-0
- Week 8: 0-1
- Week 9: 0-1
- Week 10: 1-1
- Week 11: 0-1
- Week 12: 0-0
- Week 13: 0-0
- Week 14: 1-1
- Week 15: 1-1
- Week 16: 0-0
- Week 17: 1-0
- Total = 14-10 (58.3%)
Podcast + Article Picks (Chris' Record Only):
- 173-121 (58.8%)
Stefon Diggs - Over 90.5 receiving yards AND Over 7.5 receptions (DraftKings -118/FanDuel +102): The NFL’s receiving yards leader (1,535; 95.9 per game) ripped up Miami’s supposed “best DB duo” in the league Week 17, torching Byron Jones and Xavien Howard for 8-7-76 in one half of football in a must-win game for the now eliminated Dolphins. Diggs had ripped off three straight games of 130+ receiving yards prior to Week 17, as well as tallying 92+ yards in seven of his past games. He has seen no fewer than six targets in a single game this season, including nine games of double digit targets and 10+ targets in four straight games and six of eight leading up to Week 17 as well. Diggs will face a zone-heavy Colts defensive scheme that simply wants to stop the run and limit explosive play opportunities. Xavier Rhodes might be experiencing a bit of a bounce back season in 2020 after most had left him for dead following his declining play in Minnesota last year, but it’s nowhere near enough to keep Diggs in check in a potential eruption spot for this Bills passing attack. The Colts are allowing bottom 10 rates in yards per target to opposing wideouts (8.81), and Diggs himself hasn’t seen fewer than eight targets in a single game since Week 14. Even more impressive is that Diggs ranks second in the NFL in “catchable” air yards and sixth in target share since Week 14. Despite a strong start to the season, he’s just now hitting his stride with Allen as arguably the league’s top QB/WR tandem. Indianapolis’ secondary has slid as of late, ranking in the bottom two in completion rate allowed on deep attempts (50%), yards per attempt allowed on deep throws (17.7) and passer rating allowed on deep throws (123.0). Don’t hesitate to stack Allen and Diggs in DFS tournaments this week, even in single-entry and three-entry max contests. Get contrarian with the rest of your lineup, but not with this ridiculously explosive pair. I also like the over 7.5 receptions here, a number Diggs has cleared in six of seven prior to Week 17 and against similar zone schemes this season (San Francisco/Tennessee) he has posted lines of 10-10-92 and 16-10-106. Diggs will be a borderline top 12 overall fantasy pick in 2021, mark my words, and he'll be more than worth the extremely high price tag.
Russell Wilson - Under 247.5 passing yards AND Under 23.5 completions (FanDuel -112/DraftKings -110): This is a prop I covered extensively on our Betting Predators NFL Wild Card Weekend Preview podcast (when the number was in the mid 250’s) and to me the numbers still just make too much sense to take unders on Russ in this Saturday afternoon spot. “The man who once cooked,” Wilson is averaging just 236.6 passing yards per game against the division rival Los Angeles Rams, as well 21 completions per game. He hasn’t cleared either of these numbers since December 6th, a game in which Seattle trailed nearly end to end against the New York Giants (27/263). In four games since, the most Russ has recorded is 21 completions (Jets/Week 14) and 225 yards (Rams/Week 16). It’s no secret that Pete Carroll wants his running game to “cook” more than his QB these days, especially in a playoff matchup against a divisional foe with arguably both the league’s best secondary and pass rush. Wilson has thrown for less than 248 yards in six of his past seven games, and the Rams themselves haven’t given up 248 passing yards since Russ hit exactly that number in another game where the Seahawks trailed and lost by a touchdown on the road. With Goff’s hand hobbled (thumb injury) and Akers just one week off a high ankle sprain, in addition to Seattle playing at home, I expect the Seahawks to control the pace and play from ahead for most of this matchup. Opposing quarterbacks are averaging a paltry 191.7 passing yards against the Rams since their Week 9 bye and have thrown for less than 252 pass yards in nine straight games since then as well. It might not be the most relevant sample in the world, but Russ in his last 10 games against Los Angeles (2016-2020) is averaging 218.3 yards. With the weekend’s lowest total (42) and Seattle still favorite by -3 or more, I don’t believe Russ will need to throw much late. We’ve lost value on the initial bet of under 254.5 that I gave out on the Wild Card Weekend/Wednesday Preview podcast, but I still like it down to 245.5 passing yards overall, as well as the under on 23.5 completions. No playoff cooking for Russ - yet.
Chris Carson - Over 59.5 rushing yards (DraftKings -112): Copy and paste the previous handicap. This game lines up for Carroll & Co to do what they love best: play defense and run the living s*** out of the football. Carson ripped off four straight games of 63+ rushing yards from Weeks 13-16 and is now 6+ weeks removed from his foot injury. He ran 16 times for 69 yards in the Seahawks’ 20-9 home victory over the Rams and also put up solid rushing lines of 15-63, 12-76 and 13-65 in tough matchups against the Washington Football Team, New York Jets and New York Giants. Although he hasn’t had bell-cow type of usage in 2020, Carson in 2019 was used heavily in the run game, opening last season with 15+ carries in 11 consecutive games and 14 of 16 on the season. I lean towards the over on 14.5 carries here, which you can find at the same juice of -112 on DraftKings, as well as similar numbers on BetOnline/FanDuel.
Cam Akers - Under 66.5 rushing yards (BetOnline -114): Akers made a surprisingly quick return from his supposed “high ankle sprain” in Week 17 and ran 21 times, albeit for just 34 yards, against a more-than-beatable Arizona Cardinals run defense. Akers put up just 63 yards on 15 carries against the New York Jets in Week 15 as well. With the chance for re-injury, in addition to a banged up Goff and facing a stout Seattle front seven, I’m more than happy taking the under on Akers with the chance for a negative game script here. Akers’ three-game stretch of 84, 72 and 171 rushing yards from Weeks 12-14 also came against weak rushing fronts of the Patriots, Cardinals and 49’ers. I have Carson’s projected rushing yards line higher than Akers, yet Akers is set seven yards higher by the books here. Clear value on Carson’s over, as well as Akers’ under here, and although I don’t like betting unders on semi-low totals for a guy consistently getting 20+ carries, there are just too many factors working against the former Florida State stud here.
Josh Reynolds - Over 2.5 receptions AND Over 23.5 receiving yards (DraftKings +115/-141): Reynolds surprisingly leads the Rams by a wide margin when it comes to their two games with the Seahawks so far this season. The former Texas A&M star wideout has totaled a whopping 20 targets in two games against Seattle this season, hauling in 14 passes for 159 yards combined. Even with John Wolford in Week 17 Reynolds was able to haul in 4 of 6 targets for 29 yards and I expect him to again benefit from the extra attention given to Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods by Seattle’s defensive scheme. Reynolds ripped off 10 straight games of at least 25 yards from Weeks 2-12 and five straight games of at least three catches from Weeks 7-12. Reynolds’ price tag of $3,600 on DraftKings is too tempting to pass up for me too, as it allows you to save funds for higher-priced studs in the BUF/IND and TEN/BAL contests if you’re playing the full six-game slate for Saturday and Sunday. I also like him as a punt play on the Saturday only slate.
Antonio Gibson - Over 12.5 receiving yards (DraftKings -125): Another prop I broke down on our Betting Predators Wild Card Weekend Preview podcast, Gibson had cleared this total in three of his past four games and six of his past eight prior to suffering his turf toe injury against the Steelers on December 7th. With Washington listed as +8/+8.5 dogs at home, I expect both Gibson and McKissic to serve as vital cogs in the passing game for the check down king himself, Mr. Alex Smith. While McKissic could likely double the targets/pass game production from Gibson as we’ve seen in the past, I’m looking to attack an extremely low total here for arguably WFT’s most explosive playmaker on offense. Tampa Bay is allowing a league-high six catches per game to running backs and 101 catches overall to the position on the season. Now three weeks removed from returning off his toe injury, in addition to the likely negative game script, I believe Gibson will see between 4-6 targets on Saturday night and need just two catches to pay this off.
J.D. McKissic - Over 4.5 receptions AND Over 31.5 receiving yards (FanDuel -176/DraftKings -137): Gibson’s running back counterpart, McKissic has seen an absurdly 83% of his targets come when Washington has trailed in games this season, and he’s also the team leader in both targets (59) and catches (38) on attempts from Alex Smith this season. The pass-catching specialist is averaging 6.8 receptions per game over the past five weeks and during WFT losses he is averaging 8.3 targets, 6.1 receptions and 45.1 receiving yards per game. Compare that to just 5.0 targets, 3.6 receptions and 26 receiving yards per game in WFT wins, and I think you know where I’m going here. This might be the last chance we have at a WFT running back double dip this season, so let’s savor the moment while we can. If you don’t want to pay the high juice of -176 on FanDuel for the receptions, you can get close to even money on 5.5 receptions at BetOnline. I lean towards 5.5, but over 4.5 is an easy call as it looks more and more like Alex Smith will truly be playing a full complement of snaps in this Saturday night affair.
Ronald Jones - Over 56.5 rushing yards (FanDuel -112): "RoJo" just barely missed the mark on his first career 1,000 yard rushing season, finishing with 978 on the year while averaging an impressive 5.1 yards per carry. Jones has four 100+ yard games on the year and closed the 2020 regular season with rushing lines of 9-66, 18-80 and 12-78 against the Chiefs, Vikings and Falcons. Although the matchup with the Washington Football Team doesn’t scream upside, we still get the lead back on a Tampa Bay team favored by nearly two scores here. Washington’s pass rush is something to fear, sure, but the run defense hasn’t been anything to run away from. WFT allowed 16-65 to Boston Scott and a depleted Eagles OL in a must-win game in Week 17, as well as rushing lines of 15-63 to Chris Carson, 14-65 to Raheem Mostert, 16-81 to D’Andre Swift, 14-68 to Wayne Gallman and 18-61 to Devonta Freeman. Rojo is now one more week removed from his hand injury and the Bucs know they will need him at his best if they are to truly make a run in the ultra-competitive NFC playoff race. I love Jones as a DFS play, too, and a way to differentiate your GPP lineups from those loading up heavily on both Jonathan Taylor and overall BUF/IND stacks.
Tom Brady - Under 292.5 passing yards (DraftKings -106): Courtesy of our newest contributor, Garett Hoffard (@GBabyGambles), the Washington Football Team has allowed a league-best 191 passing yards per game this season and has allowed a ridiculously low 37 points combined during the second half of their last 10 games in 2020. Brady has been consistently ripping through opposing secondaries this season and has posted 300+ yards in four of his past five games, but that stretch came against four of the league’s worst pass defenses in the Falcons, Lions and Vikings, as well as one game against the Chiefs in which the Bucs trailed by 17-0 after the first quarter. In relatively tougher matchups this year, Brady threw for 216 yards (Rams), 209 yards (Saints), 279 yards (Giants), 253 yards (Bears) and 239 yards (Saints). I expect Brady to pick his spots here with a banged up Mike Evans and an extremely tough matchup for slot receivers/tight ends with Chris Godwin and Rob Gronkowski getting limited. RoJo and Antonio Brown, in turn, could be the biggest Bucs beneficiaries here, and are my two favorite Tampa Bay DFS plays here.
Sleepy’s Best Bet Bonus Prop - Antonio Brown Over 59.5 receiving yards (DraftKings -112)