By Chris Dell
Please Note: The player prop lines below were available at the time they were given to our NFL 2021 In-Season Package subscribers on our Betting Predators Private Discord Channel. In order to get an alert the moment after I place one of my prop bets and get the best line available, I highly recommend signing up for our in-season package, which gives you access to my best bet player props + DFS top plays for every primetime game AND every Sunday main slate. You'll also get access to our private Discord, as well as our Betting Predators' NFL Power Ratings, Lookahead Line Forecasts and Player Prop Podcast Article/Written Recaps. Lastly, you'll notice that a lot of my best bet player props also strongly correlate with my weekly fantasy football rankings, which you can find here. Any questions? Hit me on Twitter @MaddJournalist:
- Last Week's Record: 11-6
- Chris ' Overall 2021 Props Column Record: 63-65
- Chris' Overall 2020 Props Column Record: 159-111
Amon-Ra St. Brown UNDER 47.5 Rec Yds @ Pinnacle -114
Amon-Ra St. WHO? Yes, the rookie receiver out of USC has looked impressive in certain spots this season, but he now faces the toughest matchup of his young NFL career against the Los Angeles Rams and more specifically Jalen Ramsey. St. Brown leads the Lions in slot routes this season (80%) and will see a ton of Ramsey come late afternoon on Sunday. Ramsey has played a team-high 182 snaps out of the slot this season, which is a big reason why St. Brown sports the lowest PFF WR/DB matchup score BY FAR this week of NEGATIVE -0.4. For reference, the fifth worst WR/DB matchup has a score of 15. St. Brown has gone under this total in 4 of 6 games and is averaging 34 yards this season. In the games he’s gone under he’s posted yardage totals of 23/18/2/26. Even last week on 7 targets he pulled in 5 catches for 26 yards, showing us even with solid volume and a negative game script that we can cash this without much of a sweat. Buy price: 42.5
James Conner OVER 13.5 Rush Att @ Caesars -110
Conner’s snaps have increased in consecutive weeks now to a season-high 55%, and he’s seen 77.5% of his total yards with the Cardinals leading while averaging 16.3 touches in the four games Arizona has won by 10 or more points this season. And what do we get in Week 7? A hefty -17.5 spread favoring the Cardinals once more, meaning that we’re more than likely to see a ton of Conner mop-up duties yet again while the franchise wisely takes the burden off the oft-injured shoulders of both Kyler Murray and Chase Edmonds (see what I did there?), arguably their two most talented offensive playmakers (and factually their two most explosive runners). In the three games Arizona has won by 13 points or more this year Conner has posted 16/18/16 carries and 53/50/71 yards. While I do like his yards over 53.5 as well (half unit wager listed below), my full focus will be on playing the over on a prop where we’re getting nearly every handicapping aspect in our favor. I’d play this up to 14.5 at even money: Buy price: 14.5
James Conner TD @ Pinnacle +123 ~ AND ~ DeAndre Hopkins TD @ BetMGM -105
Half unit on each prop here. This one probably is as square as it gets, as most of you know I hardly ever entertain TD props during the course of an NFL season. But these two are also just simply too good to pass up. We talked a lot about Conner’s massive usage in blowouts for Arizona in the previous handicap above, and he’s coming into this game having scored 5 rushing TD’s in his last four games. Hopkins, on the other hand, well this is all about #revenge. The man known as “Nuke” has publicly voiced his displeasure of the Houston organization and we could simply see Arizona force some red zone looks his way early in this one. Hopkins also has three TD’s in his past two games and is coming off a 2-TD performance against the Browns in Week 6. I’d be shocked if he doesn’t find the end zone in the first half of this game. If you can’t get an average vig of even money (+100) when playing these two props then I wouldn’t recommend it, but at +105 and -105 on each side I think it’s perfectly fine. Buy price: +100
Miles Sanders UNDER 65.5 Rush Yds @ FoxBet -105
It’s quite possible that I just don’t like having any fun. “Chris, why so many unders in Week 7?” you might ask. First of all, in Sanders’ case, this is an easy bet for me to make. Sanders has recorded 56 rushing yards or less in FIVE STRAIGHT GAMES. The only game in which he beat this prop was back in Week 1 when the Eagles won by 26 points over a horrid Falcons defense and found themselves in a massively positive game script. I expect more of a balanced game here in Las Vegas in Week 7, a game in which both of these teams rank in the top 10 in PROE (Pass Rate Over Expecation) according to Establish The Run. Many bettors are overreacting to the fact Sanders ripped off a 23-yard gain against the vaunted Tampa Bay run defense on an island/primetime game in Week 6. What they won’t admit is that at that point in the game the Bucs were dropping back in extremely soft coverages with a multi-touchdown lead. Take away that one Sanders run and he finishes Week 6 with 8 carries for 33 yards. I know Sanders is an explosive player, but this another over-inflated prop line we’re going to attack. Buy price: 61.5
Justin Fields UNDER 225.5 Pass Yds @ DK -115
Another under most likely means we’re playing on another overreaction by the betting public, a public which still believes the notion that ANY offense in the NFL can simply throw all over the Tampa Bay secondary. Ask Eagles fans how that went in Week 6. I’ll wait. All kidding aside, Fields has thrown for 209 passing yards OR LESS in all four of his starts. Did you know he also went for 199 passing yards or less in 3 of his final 4 college games? I know it’s not the best simple and that maybe he wasn’t fully healthy for some of those, but just know we’re looking at a QB who has topped 200 yards in just two of his past seven starts in the pros AND in college and now faces arguably his toughest (or second toughest if you count Cleveland) test in the Bucs’ defensive line/pass rush. Tampa Bay is likely to get Jason Pierre-Paul back into the lineup this week as well and matches up very similar to how the Browns did in Week 3 when they sacked Fields nine (!) times and held him to 68 yards in a 20-6 victory. I don’t think it’ll get that bad, but honestly, would you be all that surprised if it did? Jalen Hurts went 12-for-26 for a career low 115 yards vs this same Tampa pass rush/DL in Week 6, and members of the Bucs defense made it a point to mention after that game they’re out for revenge against a Chicago team that upset them in primetime last season. I’m fading all Bears in DFS this week and investing heavily in the Bucs’ D/ST as a pay-up-to-be-contrarian play. Buy price: 219.5
Giovani Bernard UNDER 23.5 Rush + Rec Yds @ Caesars -110
The aforementioned Bucs are playing at home as near multi-TD favorites in a “revenge game” contest. There’s a good chance their third-down/passing downs back doesn’t see much work in the process. Week 6 saw Bernard record ZERO carries and two catches for four yards in another heavily positive game script. In fact, he’s actually gone under this total easily in 3 of 4 games in which he’s played AND the Bucs have won. The only time he went over he needed a 17-yard run in garbage time to do so, or else he would’ve finished with 18 total yards in that game. Tampa has shown a willingness to ride Leonard Fournette as their alpha dog back and with the Bears’ offense operating at a molasses-like run-heavy pace and draining clock at every chance they can get I expect to see suppressed snaps/play volume across the board in this one for both offenses. Buy Price: 19.5
Chris Conley UNDER 20.5 Rec Yds @ FoxBet +100
Danny Amendola will make his return to the Texans offense this week and Nico Collins will play in his second game back from injury after tallying a career-high 6-4-44 receiving line in Week 6. That leaves Conley likely as the odd man out in this WR rotation against a very stingy Cardinals secondary to boot, one that defends deep-to-intermediate passes well. The Texans have the sixth worst graded pass blocking matchup this week, according to PFF, and add that to the fact that Conley has topped just 13 receiving yards ONCE in his last five games. It’s possible he sees one target and doesn’t record a single catch in this one, just like he did in Week 3 and Week 4 against similar tough defenses against Buffalo and Carolina. Buy Price: 19.5
Tua Tagovailoa OVER 34.5 Pass Att ~ AND ~ OVER 23.5 Completions @ FoxBet -105
Tua had nearly 30 pass attempts at halftime of Week 6. Either the Fins are looking to show off his arm and shop him, or Tua himself is looking to showcase himself to stay in Miami and get a long-term deal OR show other teams himself he’s a capable NFL passer and franchise QB. Either way you chop it up the Dolphins are a team that ranks #3 in PROE and that includes all games in which Jacoby Brissett was even starting under center. In a game with a solid 47.5 point total and Miami +2.5 dogs at home against a well-rested Atlanta club, I expect the heavy pass volume to continue here. Don’t be surprised to see Tua to top 40 or 45 pass attempts like he did in Week 6 in just his first game back from injury, especially with the woeful run blocking and RB clown carousel that Miami has trotted out so far this season. I also his like his 254.5 passing yards (best line currently -114 at TwinSpires), but I’m going full unit on the attempts and another unit on the completions for Week 7. Even with Brissett under center we’ve seen Miami top these numbers quite easily in 4 of the team’s last 5 games while averaging 41.2 pass attempts to go along with 27.4 completions. Buy price: -115
Derrick Henry UNDER 147.5 Rush + Rec Yds @ Caesars -110
Let me preface this by saying: I HATE THIS PROP. So why am I betting it? Well, if you listened to our ‘Money Picks’ player props podcast this week, then you’ll know why. And it’s quite simple if you ask me. Any time I have a chance to bet a single player under close to 150 yards from scrimmage, in the year 2021, well I’m simply going to hold my nose and do it. Henry could run for 200+ on the Chiefs’ weak sauce run D, I get it. But I’m playing the long game here. The fact remains that this prop is extremely over-inflated and I want to bet against the public hype. We have Henry projected for a beastly 135 yards total yards in this game, and with the return of second-year change of pace back Darrynton Evans into the Week 7 lineup it could temper Henry’s receiving role just enough to give us a nice cushion here. Henry is 3-3 against the current line here, but with the Titans also coming off a primetime upset of the Super Bowl contending Bills and on a short week (potential let down spot/negative game script), AND in their first game this season without their best offensive lineman in Taylor Lewan, well I believe that’s enough to justify fading the “Big Dog” in this spot. Buy price: 146.5
Calvin Ridley OVER 68.5 Rec Yds @ DK -115
Ridley averaged 10.5 targets over Atlanta’s initial four games and is coming off a long rest after a BYE week and before that missing the Falcons’ Week 5 game in London due to personal reasons. Ridley topped this total in his previous game with a 13-7-80 line against Washington, and with improved play from Matt Ryan over the last month and the Dolphins not receiving a bye off their own London game this could indeed become a ‘get-right’ type of spot for the young and talented Ridley here, who closed the 2020 regular season with 100+ receiving yards in 4 of his last 5 games and 90+ yards in 5 of his last 7. Buy the dip in the market here. If we see one big bounce back game from Ridley, who hasn’t connected on a deep ball once yet this year, we could easily see the books re-adjust this number back into the 80’s next week. Buy price: 73.5
Cordarrelle Patterson OVER 39.5 Rec Yds @ DK -115
Even with both Calvin Ridley and Russell gage on the field in Week 2 we saw “C-Patt” catch 5 of 7 targets for 58 yards. He’s averaged 70.5 receiving yards over the past month and has maintained a steady role in the ATL passing game both as a receiver out of the backfield AND lining up in the slot/out wide. Miami is surprisingly playing with no bye week despite coming off a London game, which means their defense could be dealing with some jet lag/fatigue, especially facing a team like Atlanta fresh off a bye with extra time to prepare and motivated to even its record at 3-3 with a win. In that London game last week Miami was eviscerated by Trevor Lawrence for 300+ yards as Marvin Jones, Jamal Agnew AND Laviska Shenault each had 58+ yards. Agnew personally profiles very similar to patterson as well, a former running back being used in a hybrid/gadget role but also as a traditional slot/down field receiver. With the rate Miami passes (#3 in PROE/Pass Rate Over Expectation) we can expect to also see elevated passing plays/offensive snaps in this one. In my opinion this should be lined closer to 50. With Xavien Howard and Byron Jones back into the fold for MIA I believe they’ll be spending most of their time dealing with Ridley and Pitts on the outside, leaving Patterson for easy chunk gains underneath. This dude is simply too explosive to be lined in the 30’s. Buy price: 43.5 receiving yards
Joe Mixon OVER 56.5 Rush Yds @ Caesars -115
MY Cincinnati Bengals boast one of the top seven rated run blocking matchups of the week, according to PFF, and in Mixon we get ourselves on the league’s true bell cow backs who is always a candidate to see 20+ rushing attempts. Mixon has topped 67 rushing yards or more in EVERY GAME this season in which he’s been healthy, including rushing for 90 yards or more in 3 of 5 healthy games. The Ravens are coming off a game in which they shut down the Chargers offenses, sure, but that game is more of an anomaly when looking at what Baltimore has done defensively this season, including giving up 89 RB rushing yards to the Lions in Week 3 104 to Denver in Week 4 and 118 to the Colts in Week 5. I’ll gladly play Mixon to top 60 rushing yards here and make it 6 for 6 in healthy games this year, and I don’t hate a pizza bet (quarter unit) on his alt line of over 69.5 at Fanduel for +164. Buy price: 60.5
Other Player Props I Bet For Week 7
(0.75) Jared Goff UNDER 269.5 Pass Yds @ MGM -120
(0.5) Jared Goff INT @ Caesars -130 (0.5)
(0.5) Matthew Stafford OVER 23.5 Completions @ Caesars +100
(0.5) Matthew Stafford OVER 2.5 Passing TD's @ Caesars +105
(0.5) James Conner OVER 53.5 Rush Yds @ DK -110
(0.5) D'Andre Swift UNDER 91.5 Rush + Rec Yds @ Caesars -105
(0.5) Ricky Seals-Jones OVER 38.5 Rec Yds @ Pinnacle -114
(0.5) Taylor Heinicke UNDER 22.5 Completions @ Caesars +100