·
By Chris Dell
Please Note: The player prop lines below were available at the time they were given to our NFL 2021 In-Season Package subscribers on our Betting Predators Private Discord Channel. In order to get an alert the moment after I place one of my prop bets and get the best line available, I highly recommend signing up for our in-season package, which gives you access to my best bet player props + DFS top plays for every primetime game AND every Sunday main slate. You'll also get access to our private Discord, as well as our Betting Predators' NFL Power Ratings, Lookahead Line Forecasts and Player Prop Podcast Article/Written Recaps. Lastly, you'll notice that a lot of my best bet player props also strongly correlate with my weekly fantasy football rankings, which you can find here. Any questions? Hit me on Twitter @MaddJournalist:
- Chris ' Overall 2021 Props Column Record: 9-6
- Chris' Overall 2020 Props Column Record: 159-111
2020 Weekly Column Record (Chris' Props + Sleepy's Bonus Prop):
- Week 1: 0-0
- Week 2: 10-4
- Week 3: 12-4
- Week 4: 9-8
- Week 5: 10-7
- Week 6: 9-11
- Week 7: 10-12
- Week 8: 6-7
- Week 9: 9-8
- Week 10: 12-6
- Week 11: 9-7
- Week 12: 11-5
- Week 13: 16-5
- Week 14: 11-8
- Week 15: 10-10
- Week 16: 11-2
- Week 17: 12-14
- Total: 167-118 (58.6%)
2020 Weekly Podcast Record (Chris' Props Only):
- Week 1: 1-2
- Week 2: 2-1
- Week 3: 0-0
- Week 4: 3-0
- Week 5: 2-1
- Week 6: 0-0
- Week 7: 2-0
- Week 8: 0-1
- Week 9: 0-1
- Week 10: 1-1
- Week 11: 0-1
- Week 12: 0-0
- Week 13: 0-0
- Week 14: 1-1
- Week 15: 1-1
- Week 16: 0-0
- Week 17: 1-0
- Total = 14-10 (58.3%)
2020 Podcast + Column Record (Chris' Props Only):
- Total = 173-121 (58.8%)
Last Update: 11:54 a.m. ET on Sunday, September 19th
Joe Mixon OVER 64.5 Rushing Yards @ DraftKings -115
In Week 1 we saw 78% snap share, 33 total touches and a workhorse level workload on the ground of 29 carries for 127 yards against the Chicago Bears. In Week 2 we expect to see more of a the same, especially against a Bears defense that allowed 16 carries for 70 yards to Darrell Henderson. The Bengals will continue to ride the shoulders of Mixon while Burrow's health improves and the team adapts to its makeshift OL/pass protection. We expect near the 20 carry mark again for Mr. Mixon. Buy price: 66.5
Allen Robinson OVER 5.5 Receptions @ DraftKings -120
Robinson still eclipsed this total in Week 1 despite being relatively "shut down" by the L.A. Rams defense, coming away with 6 catches for 35 yards on 11 targets on Sunday Night Football. Robinson's 28.9% is tied for the 10th most in the NFL so far in 2020, and we expect that continue in Week 2 against a Cincinnati Bengals secondary which lost key playmakers over the offseason and just allowed Adam Thielen (10-9-92), Justin Jefferson (9-5-71) AND K.J. Osborn (9-7-76) to combine for 28 catches. Robinson hit this mark 64.7% in 2020 with extremely subpar quarterback play. We're simply buying the public overreaction here. Buy price: -150
Christian McCaffrey OVER 5.5 Receptions ~ AND ~ OVER 40.5 Receiving Yards @ DraftKings -130 / -115
McCaffrey has absolutely FEASTED through the air against New Orleans during his NFL career. Here are his receiving lines against Sean Payton and his Saints since his rookie season in 2017: 11-9-101, 6-5-33, 8-6-101, 11-8-67, 9-9-69 and 10-7-72. Yes, that's just one time in his career meetings with N.O. that he's gone under one of these two props, and that was in his ROOKIE SEASON. I expect CMC to be heavily involved as a receiver in Week 2 after ripping off 9-9-89 against the Jets and the Panthers looking to make a surprise 2-0 start to the 2021 season. The Saints have continually ranked near the bottom of the NFL in allowing pass catching work to opposing RB's and limiting on the ground as well, suiting CMC's skillset nicely for this divisional tilt. Buy price: -135/45.5
Terrace Marshall OVER 2.5 Receptions @ DraftKings -135
The talented rookie led the non-CMC/Moore pass catchers with six targets in his NFL debut last weekend and is on pace to grow in his role as the Panthers' "big slot" receiver. We project a negative game script and plenty of short opportunities in the passing game for Darnold & Co, leaving Marshall to soak up easy catches in the short to intermediate areas of the field in Week 2. Buy price: -140
The talented rookie led the non-CMC/Moore pass catchers with six targets in his NFL debut last weekend and is on pace to grow in his role as the Panthers' "big slot" receiver. We project a negative game script and plenty of short opportunities in the passing game for Darnold & Co, leaving Marshall to soak up easy catches in the short to intermediate areas of the field in Week 2. Buy price: -140
Adam Trautman OVER 2.5 Receptions @ WilliamHill -105
Trautman was one of only TWO tight ends to earn a 30% target share in Week 1. The other? None other than Darren Waller. We expect Winston to throw a tad more against the Panthers on Sunday than he did in Week 1 too, when 6 of his 20 attempts went to Trautman (more than double the targets of any non-Kamara Saints player). The next highest N.O. passcatcher earned just three targets, and that was fellow tight end Juwan Johnson. Winston has showed an affinity for targeting his TE's in the past , even going so far as to make Cameron Brate fantasy relevant in prior years in Tampa Bay. Trautman is a second-year breakout candidate with a solid collegiate/athletic profile and opportunity for room to grow in this two-TE friendly offensive scheme. Jets TE's Tyler Kroft ( 5-3-26) and Ryan Griffin (6-3-22) combined for 11 of Zack Wilson's 37 throws (29.7% target share) in Week 1 against this same Panthers defense, giving us some icing on the cake here. This prop held steady at around -160 earlier in the week, and I have no problem buying the dip despite the coaching concerns in N.O., which if anything could lead to more passing than not here. Buy price: -130
Trautman was one of only TWO tight ends to earn a 30% target share in Week 1. The other? None other than Darren Waller. We expect Winston to throw a tad more against the Panthers on Sunday than he did in Week 1 too, when 6 of his 20 attempts went to Trautman (more than double the targets of any non-Kamara Saints player). The next highest N.O. passcatcher earned just three targets, and that was fellow tight end Juwan Johnson. Winston has showed an affinity for targeting his TE's in the past , even going so far as to make Cameron Brate fantasy relevant in prior years in Tampa Bay. Trautman is a second-year breakout candidate with a solid collegiate/athletic profile and opportunity for room to grow in this two-TE friendly offensive scheme. Jets TE's Tyler Kroft ( 5-3-26) and Ryan Griffin (6-3-22) combined for 11 of Zack Wilson's 37 throws (29.7% target share) in Week 1 against this same Panthers defense, giving us some icing on the cake here. This prop held steady at around -160 earlier in the week, and I have no problem buying the dip despite the coaching concerns in N.O., which if anything could lead to more passing than not here. Buy price: -130
Jalen Hurts OVER 41.5 Rushing Yards @ DraftKings -110
We talked about this extensively on our NFL Sunday NIght Week 1 recap show, and the logic was quite simple actually: Jalen hasn't rushed for LESS than 60 yards in all of his career starts in which he finished the game. A talented San Francisco defense could present more pressure than ATL did in Week 1 as well, forcing Hurts out of the pocket and relying on his legs to move the chains early and often here. This line has been steamed up 10+ yards since its opener, so I'd keep this to a pizza bet (quarter unit or so) if you can't find anything less than 50 yards this late in the week. Hurts might just lead all QB's in rushing this season. Buy price: 48.5
We talked about this extensively on our NFL Sunday NIght Week 1 recap show, and the logic was quite simple actually: Jalen hasn't rushed for LESS than 60 yards in all of his career starts in which he finished the game. A talented San Francisco defense could present more pressure than ATL did in Week 1 as well, forcing Hurts out of the pocket and relying on his legs to move the chains early and often here. This line has been steamed up 10+ yards since its opener, so I'd keep this to a pizza bet (quarter unit or so) if you can't find anything less than 50 yards this late in the week. Hurts might just lead all QB's in rushing this season. Buy price: 48.5
Miles Sanders OVER 16.5 Receiving Yards @ DraftKings -110
This one is two-pronged here, as Sanders surprisingly saw five targets in a positive game script in Week 1 and shed the narrative of the drops issues that had seemingly plagued him since last season. Now Sanders faces a San Francisco 49'ers team that surrendered a massive 20 targets, 16 catches and 121 receiving yards to Detroit's D'Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams. Buy price: -130
This one is two-pronged here, as Sanders surprisingly saw five targets in a positive game script in Week 1 and shed the narrative of the drops issues that had seemingly plagued him since last season. Now Sanders faces a San Francisco 49'ers team that surrendered a massive 20 targets, 16 catches and 121 receiving yards to Detroit's D'Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams. Buy price: -130
Javonte Williams OVER 10.5 Rushing Attempts ~ AND ~ OVER 45.5 Rushing Yards @ Bet365 -110 / @ DraftKings -115
The rookie Javonte had 14 carries in Week 1 against a solid Giants run defense and now gets the reeling Jaguars with the Broncos favored by 6 points on the road and their best WR weapon on IR in Jerry Jeudy. The fact Williams outcarried Melvin Gordon in his first ever career game 14-11 goes to show the trust this coaching staff has in the UNC alum, and he now gets a JAX defense that surrendered 110 running back rush yards on 37 (!) carries to the Texans in Week 1. Javonte could simply be the next breakout fantasy star to become a household name in Week 2, and we have him projected comfortable for 14+ carries again to go along with nearly 60 rushing yards. We're riding the rookie RB double dip in this spot.
The rookie Javonte had 14 carries in Week 1 against a solid Giants run defense and now gets the reeling Jaguars with the Broncos favored by 6 points on the road and their best WR weapon on IR in Jerry Jeudy. The fact Williams outcarried Melvin Gordon in his first ever career game 14-11 goes to show the trust this coaching staff has in the UNC alum, and he now gets a JAX defense that surrendered 110 running back rush yards on 37 (!) carries to the Texans in Week 1. Javonte could simply be the next breakout fantasy star to become a household name in Week 2, and we have him projected comfortable for 14+ carries again to go along with nearly 60 rushing yards. We're riding the rookie RB double dip in this spot.
Brandin Cooks OVER 61.5 Receiving Yards @ DraftKings -115
Even by removing Cooks' 52-yard catch against the Jaguars in Week 1 he still would've netted 4 catches for 80 yards on six targets (his real line was 7-5-132), and this was in the most positive of game scripts the Texans might ever see again this season. Such a positive game script in fact that Mark Ingram the Second of all people tallied 26 total carries and the Texans RB's finished with 37 rushing attempts as a positional unit. Houston now hits the road as multi-touchdown dogs against a motivated Browns team looking for their first win of the year. Cooks could more than double this line again, and that's not even much of a bold statement. I believe Cooks' elite speed and separation perfectly pairs with Tyrod Taylor's mobility and downfield accuracy, and that we've just seen the beginning of this duo in 2021. Take advantage of a prop line that could be near 70-75 yards by October. Buy price: 66.5
Even by removing Cooks' 52-yard catch against the Jaguars in Week 1 he still would've netted 4 catches for 80 yards on six targets (his real line was 7-5-132), and this was in the most positive of game scripts the Texans might ever see again this season. Such a positive game script in fact that Mark Ingram the Second of all people tallied 26 total carries and the Texans RB's finished with 37 rushing attempts as a positional unit. Houston now hits the road as multi-touchdown dogs against a motivated Browns team looking for their first win of the year. Cooks could more than double this line again, and that's not even much of a bold statement. I believe Cooks' elite speed and separation perfectly pairs with Tyrod Taylor's mobility and downfield accuracy, and that we've just seen the beginning of this duo in 2021. Take advantage of a prop line that could be near 70-75 yards by October. Buy price: 66.5
Chris Godwin OVER 68.5 Receiving Yards @ DraftKings -115
Godwin received FOURTEEN TARGETS in Week 1, so why is his prop line lower than that of Antonio Brown? Brown's line has moved up to 70.5 from 49.5 in Week 1, a clear overreaction to what happened last Thursday. While I clearly don't recommend an under play on AB, I clearly do recommend an over on Godwin for a guy who DOUBLED Brown's targets in Week 1 and who should absolutely be the top rated prop market WR for Week 2. Godwin finished top five in the league with a 30% target share the Bucs' regular-season opener and stands to benefit from a cake matchup against Atlanta, a secondary he has torched over the last two seasons with receiving lines of 7-5-133 (in 2020), 8-7-144 (2019) and 9-6-114 (2018) in three of his past four meetings with the Falcons. We have Godwin projected for 80+ yards this Sunday, giving us a clear edge here in addition to Brown's overpricing. Buy price: -130
Godwin received FOURTEEN TARGETS in Week 1, so why is his prop line lower than that of Antonio Brown? Brown's line has moved up to 70.5 from 49.5 in Week 1, a clear overreaction to what happened last Thursday. While I clearly don't recommend an under play on AB, I clearly do recommend an over on Godwin for a guy who DOUBLED Brown's targets in Week 1 and who should absolutely be the top rated prop market WR for Week 2. Godwin finished top five in the league with a 30% target share the Bucs' regular-season opener and stands to benefit from a cake matchup against Atlanta, a secondary he has torched over the last two seasons with receiving lines of 7-5-133 (in 2020), 8-7-144 (2019) and 9-6-114 (2018) in three of his past four meetings with the Falcons. We have Godwin projected for 80+ yards this Sunday, giving us a clear edge here in addition to Brown's overpricing. Buy price: -130
Amari Cooper OVER 72.5 Receiving Yards @ DraftKings -115
Michael Gallup earned 7 targets early in the Thursday Night Football opener with the Bucs and leaves behind a huge void and overall opportunity to soak up targets for the clear alpha 1A/1B receivers in this Dallas offense in Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb. With the highest over/under in Week 2 between the Chargers and Cowboys we're expecting more of the same in this spot, which means we believe Cooper (16-13-139) and Lamb (15-7-104) actually have room to GROW their roles. That's a scary though. Buy price: 76.5
Michael Gallup earned 7 targets early in the Thursday Night Football opener with the Bucs and leaves behind a huge void and overall opportunity to soak up targets for the clear alpha 1A/1B receivers in this Dallas offense in Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb. With the highest over/under in Week 2 between the Chargers and Cowboys we're expecting more of the same in this spot, which means we believe Cooper (16-13-139) and Lamb (15-7-104) actually have room to GROW their roles. That's a scary though. Buy price: 76.5
CeeDee Lamb OVER 76.5 Receiving Yards @ DraftKings -115
Lamb sported the fourth highest air yards total (159) in Week 1 and his 43% air yards share in this offense even surpassed that of teammate Amari Cooper. Lamb's role is set to grow even further filling in for Gallup with a potential shootout against the Chargers looming. Lamb isn't being limited to partial snaps/routes and only playing the slot like he did in 2020, and if he continues to see the same level of usage in the intermediate areas of the field and deep shots, he could push for WR1 overall in fantasy. Buy price: -130
Lamb sported the fourth highest air yards total (159) in Week 1 and his 43% air yards share in this offense even surpassed that of teammate Amari Cooper. Lamb's role is set to grow even further filling in for Gallup with a potential shootout against the Chargers looming. Lamb isn't being limited to partial snaps/routes and only playing the slot like he did in 2020, and if he continues to see the same level of usage in the intermediate areas of the field and deep shots, he could push for WR1 overall in fantasy. Buy price: -130
Mike Williams OVER 4.5 Receptions ~ AND ~ OVER 57.5 Receiving Yards @ DraftKings +105 / -115
"Big Mike" Williams was one of just 10 wide receivers in the NFL with 12+ targets in Week 1, and it's very possible he could be cementing his status as the 1B wideout in this offense opposite Keenan Allen (13 targets). Did I mention Williams did this agains the vaunted Washington Football Team defense? Well, Big Mike gets the Big D in Week 2, and the Big D has anything but a big time defense as we all know. Dallas' paper-thin secondary was ripped to shreds by Tampa Bay last Thursday as Antonio Brown and Chris Godwin combined for 21 targets, 14 catches and 226 yards. I expect more of the same in the game with the highest total on the board for Week 2, and in a contract year I also expect the uber-talented Williams to continue to dominate. Buy price: -115/58.5
"Big Mike" Williams was one of just 10 wide receivers in the NFL with 12+ targets in Week 1, and it's very possible he could be cementing his status as the 1B wideout in this offense opposite Keenan Allen (13 targets). Did I mention Williams did this agains the vaunted Washington Football Team defense? Well, Big Mike gets the Big D in Week 2, and the Big D has anything but a big time defense as we all know. Dallas' paper-thin secondary was ripped to shreds by Tampa Bay last Thursday as Antonio Brown and Chris Godwin combined for 21 targets, 14 catches and 226 yards. I expect more of the same in the game with the highest total on the board for Week 2, and in a contract year I also expect the uber-talented Williams to continue to dominate. Buy price: -115/58.5
Chase Claypool OVER 46.5 Receiving Yards @ DraftKings -115
Claypool's freakish athleticism wasn't quite on full display against Buffalo last Sunday as he saw much of vaunted DB Tre'Davious White and Big Ben kept passes short, BUT he still did catch 3 of 5 targets for 45 yards. That's more than likely going to be his toughest matchup for the entire year, and with White out of the way, I look for Claypool to flex his muscles, both literally and figuratively, against a putrid Raiders secondary in Week 2 that allowed huge games to both Marquis Brown and Sammy Watkins on Monday Night Football. Big Ben back at home, with the Steelers looking to go 2-0 to start the year, gives us more cause for some deep shots to be thrown Claypool's way in this one, and this is a number he surpassed easily in four straight games to end the 2020 season with as well and 8 of 10, posting 6+ targets in 9 of his last 10 outings. The breakout is coming, be advised. Buy price: 53.5
Claypool's freakish athleticism wasn't quite on full display against Buffalo last Sunday as he saw much of vaunted DB Tre'Davious White and Big Ben kept passes short, BUT he still did catch 3 of 5 targets for 45 yards. That's more than likely going to be his toughest matchup for the entire year, and with White out of the way, I look for Claypool to flex his muscles, both literally and figuratively, against a putrid Raiders secondary in Week 2 that allowed huge games to both Marquis Brown and Sammy Watkins on Monday Night Football. Big Ben back at home, with the Steelers looking to go 2-0 to start the year, gives us more cause for some deep shots to be thrown Claypool's way in this one, and this is a number he surpassed easily in four straight games to end the 2020 season with as well and 8 of 10, posting 6+ targets in 9 of his last 10 outings. The breakout is coming, be advised. Buy price: 53.5
A.J. Green UNDER 41.5 Receiving Yards @ DraftKings -115
Six targets in his first game with his new team, a team that scored 38 points in their regular season opener no less? Not bad at all for A.J. Green's situation in Arizona, except for the fact that Green's reality is that he's completely past his prime and the league's most inefficient wideout over the past two seasons. Green hauled in just 2 of 6 targets for 25 yards, being used primarily on post routes where struggles to get separation and show burst breaking out at the peak of his routes. I certainly wouldn't be surprised to see ARI look his way here in Week 2, but I'm betting against him regardless. There's just too much to like on this under play. Buy price: 39.5
Six targets in his first game with his new team, a team that scored 38 points in their regular season opener no less? Not bad at all for A.J. Green's situation in Arizona, except for the fact that Green's reality is that he's completely past his prime and the league's most inefficient wideout over the past two seasons. Green hauled in just 2 of 6 targets for 25 yards, being used primarily on post routes where struggles to get separation and show burst breaking out at the peak of his routes. I certainly wouldn't be surprised to see ARI look his way here in Week 2, but I'm betting against him regardless. There's just too much to like on this under play. Buy price: 39.5
James Conner UNDER 1.5 Receptions @ DraftKings -115
Any time I get the chance to bet on a player who gets ZERO targets in the passing game to catch less than TWO passes in a game, I'm going to make that bet. Plain and simple. It was Chase Edmonds who ran nearly all the RB routes and played exclusively on third downs, long down and distance and during the two-minute drill. Connor can still get a catch here and we cash our bet, and I look for the aforementioned Edmonds to soak up 95%+ of that work amongst the two Arizona backs. This is the type of the prop that shouldn't even be available due to Connor's non-existent passing role. Buy this oversight while you still can. Buy price: -135
Any time I get the chance to bet on a player who gets ZERO targets in the passing game to catch less than TWO passes in a game, I'm going to make that bet. Plain and simple. It was Chase Edmonds who ran nearly all the RB routes and played exclusively on third downs, long down and distance and during the two-minute drill. Connor can still get a catch here and we cash our bet, and I look for the aforementioned Edmonds to soak up 95%+ of that work amongst the two Arizona backs. This is the type of the prop that shouldn't even be available due to Connor's non-existent passing role. Buy this oversight while you still can. Buy price: -135
Dalvin Cook OVER 22.5 Receiving Yards @ DraftKings -115
Cook squares off in Week 2 against a Cardinals defense that allowed 8-6-43 to the running back combination of Jeremy McNichols and Derrick Henry last Sunday, while Cook himself racked up seven targets, six catches and 43 yards. With no Irv Smith or tight end talent to relatively speak of Minnesota, we're seeing Kirk Cousins look for his talented RB to make plays more often than not, in addition to second-year wideout K.J. Osborn, who burst onto the scene in Week 1 as well. More on him below. Note that we have Cook projected near 30 receiving yards in a potential shootout/negative game script. Too juicy to pass up here. Buy price: 23.5
Cook squares off in Week 2 against a Cardinals defense that allowed 8-6-43 to the running back combination of Jeremy McNichols and Derrick Henry last Sunday, while Cook himself racked up seven targets, six catches and 43 yards. With no Irv Smith or tight end talent to relatively speak of Minnesota, we're seeing Kirk Cousins look for his talented RB to make plays more often than not, in addition to second-year wideout K.J. Osborn, who burst onto the scene in Week 1 as well. More on him below. Note that we have Cook projected near 30 receiving yards in a potential shootout/negative game script. Too juicy to pass up here. Buy price: 23.5
K.J. Osborn OVER 35.5 Receiving Yards @ DraftKings -115
Osborn could most certainly be a one-hit wonder in fantasy and waiver wire bids alike from his out-of-nowhere 9-7-76 performance against Cincinnati, but the fact remains the second-year wideout actually tied Justin Jefferson in targets and was more efficient on those targets overall. The loss of Irv Smith to IR has opened up a big void in this offense for a third weapon in the passing game, and it's one clearly being funneled to both Osborn and Cook as we saw in Week 1. It's why I'm more than happy to play the over receiving yards on these two guys in what projects to be a very voluminous/fast paced matchup in Week 2. Buy price: 38.5
Osborn could most certainly be a one-hit wonder in fantasy and waiver wire bids alike from his out-of-nowhere 9-7-76 performance against Cincinnati, but the fact remains the second-year wideout actually tied Justin Jefferson in targets and was more efficient on those targets overall. The loss of Irv Smith to IR has opened up a big void in this offense for a third weapon in the passing game, and it's one clearly being funneled to both Osborn and Cook as we saw in Week 1. It's why I'm more than happy to play the over receiving yards on these two guys in what projects to be a very voluminous/fast paced matchup in Week 2. Buy price: 38.5
Chris Carson OVER 16.5 Receiving Yards @ DraftKings -115
Another running back receiving yards prop, another over, seems to be the theme of this week, but I personally believe we're seeing a league wide trend of pass rate above expectation having its affect play out. Carson tallied 26 receiving yards on three targets in Week 1, a game in which Seattle capped its passing and Russell Wilson finished with just 23 attempts on the day. Carson was 8-4 to the over (67%) last year to this number, including going over in 4 of 5 to start the season when his legs were fresh. Buy price: 18.5
Another running back receiving yards prop, another over, seems to be the theme of this week, but I personally believe we're seeing a league wide trend of pass rate above expectation having its affect play out. Carson tallied 26 receiving yards on three targets in Week 1, a game in which Seattle capped its passing and Russell Wilson finished with just 23 attempts on the day. Carson was 8-4 to the over (67%) last year to this number, including going over in 4 of 5 to start the season when his legs were fresh. Buy price: 18.5
Jonathan Taylor OVER 12.5 Receiving Yards ~ AND ~ OVER 2.5 Receptions @ DraftKings -120/+145
Look familiar? Yes, I'm looking at JT and Hines (see below) as the new double dib check down RB's (at least for now) that we cashed a lot of tickets on in 2020 with Gibson and McKissic in Washington. Nearly 40% of Wentz's targets went to these guys in Week 1 as he was constantly under duress by Seattle's D-line. I expect similar pressure (if not more of it) in Week 2 against Aaron Donald and the Rams' defense. Even on Sunday night backup Bears RB Damien Williams racked up 4 catches on 5 targets for 28 yards, and that's with a Bears offense that still has Allen Robinson/Mooney/Kmet as weapons in the passing game. It's very possible that Wentz's lingering injuries are limiting his mobility even more than last season, and his RB's will continue to benefit in the passing game because of it, as a semi-extension of the run game. Not to mention the WR core in Indy is one of the weakest in the league, with a banged up Parris Campbell and no real vertical threat to speak of with the aging TY Hilton on IR. We're double dipping on the colts backs to have another productive receiving day in Week 2, totals they each more than doubled with ease in Week 1. Added chances for a negative game script here bolster our bets, with the Rams coming to town as -3.5 road favorites. The +145 on JT's catches is a juicy bonus here, especially given as well that he's still stigmatized as being an early down back who doesn't get receiving work. I'll fade the public narrative there and bank on Wentz again relying on his running backs on Sunday. Buy price: 15.5 yards/3.5 receptions
Look familiar? Yes, I'm looking at JT and Hines (see below) as the new double dib check down RB's (at least for now) that we cashed a lot of tickets on in 2020 with Gibson and McKissic in Washington. Nearly 40% of Wentz's targets went to these guys in Week 1 as he was constantly under duress by Seattle's D-line. I expect similar pressure (if not more of it) in Week 2 against Aaron Donald and the Rams' defense. Even on Sunday night backup Bears RB Damien Williams racked up 4 catches on 5 targets for 28 yards, and that's with a Bears offense that still has Allen Robinson/Mooney/Kmet as weapons in the passing game. It's very possible that Wentz's lingering injuries are limiting his mobility even more than last season, and his RB's will continue to benefit in the passing game because of it, as a semi-extension of the run game. Not to mention the WR core in Indy is one of the weakest in the league, with a banged up Parris Campbell and no real vertical threat to speak of with the aging TY Hilton on IR. We're double dipping on the colts backs to have another productive receiving day in Week 2, totals they each more than doubled with ease in Week 1. Added chances for a negative game script here bolster our bets, with the Rams coming to town as -3.5 road favorites. The +145 on JT's catches is a juicy bonus here, especially given as well that he's still stigmatized as being an early down back who doesn't get receiving work. I'll fade the public narrative there and bank on Wentz again relying on his running backs on Sunday. Buy price: 15.5 yards/3.5 receptions
Nyheim Hines OVER 22.5 Receiving Yards ~ AND ~ OVER 3.5 Receptions @ DraftKings -110/+115
Hines' team-leading 21% target share in Week 1 cannot be ignored here, especially when we saw the aforementioned Damien Williams snag a 5-4-28 receiving line against this same L.A. Rams defense on Sunday night. The Rams are a force to be wreckoned with in their secondary, but the linebackers in the middle of the field and even the d-line sans Aaron Donald aren't to be feared as much, which gives us great value on Hines to lead the way in the receiving for this team for the second straight week. The fact the Colts just gave him a brand new contract during the last week only goes to show how much the coaching staff/regime believes in him to be a key player week in and week out, not just a gimmicky third-down back in Indy. Buy price 25.5/3.5 receptions (-115)
Hines' team-leading 21% target share in Week 1 cannot be ignored here, especially when we saw the aforementioned Damien Williams snag a 5-4-28 receiving line against this same L.A. Rams defense on Sunday night. The Rams are a force to be wreckoned with in their secondary, but the linebackers in the middle of the field and even the d-line sans Aaron Donald aren't to be feared as much, which gives us great value on Hines to lead the way in the receiving for this team for the second straight week. The fact the Colts just gave him a brand new contract during the last week only goes to show how much the coaching staff/regime believes in him to be a key player week in and week out, not just a gimmicky third-down back in Indy. Buy price 25.5/3.5 receptions (-115)
Jonathan Taylor OVER 63.5 Rushing Yards @ DK -115
Three overs on Taylor in one game? It's always a bit risky when you go this route, but the value cannot be ignored for Taylor in this Week 2 spot. His rushing/receiving prop of 82.5 is probably set too low as well, but by making bets on those two individually we give ourselves 76 yards to meet/exceed compared to the combo line. Taylor rushed 17 times for 56 yards, but that was against an above average Seattle front four. The Rams? That's their defenses biggest weakeness, as evident in allowing Chicago's David Montgomery to gash them for 108 yards on 16 carries (he still would've had 15 carries for 67 yards if you removed his 41-yard gain completely as well). And this was in a game Chicago trailed from start to finish and wound up losing by 20 points. Taylor is a much more explosive talent than Montgomery (sorry Bears fans) and should have no problem eclipsing this number against an L.A. defensive line that our very own Sleepy J has ranked near the bottom of the entire NFL. JT is a 100+ rushing yards candidate this week. Buy price: 66.5
Three overs on Taylor in one game? It's always a bit risky when you go this route, but the value cannot be ignored for Taylor in this Week 2 spot. His rushing/receiving prop of 82.5 is probably set too low as well, but by making bets on those two individually we give ourselves 76 yards to meet/exceed compared to the combo line. Taylor rushed 17 times for 56 yards, but that was against an above average Seattle front four. The Rams? That's their defenses biggest weakeness, as evident in allowing Chicago's David Montgomery to gash them for 108 yards on 16 carries (he still would've had 15 carries for 67 yards if you removed his 41-yard gain completely as well). And this was in a game Chicago trailed from start to finish and wound up losing by 20 points. Taylor is a much more explosive talent than Montgomery (sorry Bears fans) and should have no problem eclipsing this number against an L.A. defensive line that our very own Sleepy J has ranked near the bottom of the entire NFL. JT is a 100+ rushing yards candidate this week. Buy price: 66.5
Ja'Marr Chase OVER 54.5 Receiving Yards @ DK -115
The fact that Tee Higgins is lined 8 yards higher (62.5 receiving yards) than Ja'Marr Chase on the player prop opening lines at DraftKings is just flat out wrong. Higgins was banged up a little last week too (hence we don't know if anything lingers into this week, giving us potentially added value here as well) - and Chase simply isn't getting the respect he deserves (yet) after his breakout Week 1 performance in which he caught registered a team-high 7-5-101 on a 26% target share in his first career in NFL game. This guy has the talent to command an O/U receiving yards line of the 70+ or 75+ in the very near future. Let's take advantage of that now, especially in a nice matchup while he simultaneously gets more chemistry going with former college teammate and Bengals QB Joe Burrow in the process, who himself is also getting healthier. I'll still go pizza bet (quarter unit max) on Chase longest catch OVER 21.5 for the -120 juice at this time of this posting as well. But absolutely best bet on his 54.5 yards. Buy price: 58.5 yards
The fact that Tee Higgins is lined 8 yards higher (62.5 receiving yards) than Ja'Marr Chase on the player prop opening lines at DraftKings is just flat out wrong. Higgins was banged up a little last week too (hence we don't know if anything lingers into this week, giving us potentially added value here as well) - and Chase simply isn't getting the respect he deserves (yet) after his breakout Week 1 performance in which he caught registered a team-high 7-5-101 on a 26% target share in his first career in NFL game. This guy has the talent to command an O/U receiving yards line of the 70+ or 75+ in the very near future. Let's take advantage of that now, especially in a nice matchup while he simultaneously gets more chemistry going with former college teammate and Bengals QB Joe Burrow in the process, who himself is also getting healthier. I'll still go pizza bet (quarter unit max) on Chase longest catch OVER 21.5 for the -120 juice at this time of this posting as well. But absolutely best bet on his 54.5 yards. Buy price: 58.5 yards