By Chris Dell
Author's note: The following player prop lines are used from either BetOnline, DraftKings or FanDuel. For a list of my top player props for Week 17's late afternoon slate (15 plays/8 games total), click here.
- Chris' Overall Prop Column Record: 147-97
- Sleepy's Overall Bonus Prop Record: 8-7
Weekly Prop Column Record (Chris + Sleepy):
- Week 1: 0-0
- Week 2: 10-4
- Week 3: 12-4
- Week 4: 9-8
- Week 5: 10-7
- Week 6: 9-11
- Week 7: 10-12
- Week 8: 6-7
- Week 9: 9-8
- Week 10: 12-6
- Week 11: 9-7
- Week 12: 11-5
- Week 13: 16-5
- Week 14: 11-8
- Week 15: 10-10
- Week 16: 11-2
- Total: 155-104 (59.8%)
Weekly Prop Podcast Record (Chris' Record Only):
- Week 1: 1-2
- Week 2: 2-1
- Week 3: 0-0
- Week 4: 3-0
- Week 5: 2-1
- Week 6: 0-0
- Week 7: 2-0
- Week 8: 0-1
- Week 9: 0-1
- Week 10: 1-1
- Week 11: 0-1
- Week 12: 0-0
- Week 13: 0-0
- Week 14: 1-1
- Week 15: 1-1
- Week 16: 0-0
- Total = 13-10 (56.5%)
Podcast + Article Picks (Chris' Record Only):
- 160-107 (59.9%)
Lamar Jackson - Over 61.5 rushing yards (FanDuel -112): The Baltimore Ravens & their franchise quarterback face a must-win Week 17 scenario in order to make the playoffs, and because of that, there’s no holding back here. Lamar is already averaging 11.3 carries for 83.3 rushing yards per game since returning from COVID-19, and he needs just 92 yards on the ground in order to become the only quarterback in NFL history to rush for 1,000 yards in back to back seasons. The Ravens will have some leeway to both secure a playoff berth and clinch an all-important record for their signal-caller in this matchup at Paul Brown Stadium. I’d bet this prop up to 91.5 if I could, for the sheer importance of this record alone. We find ourselves with a few similar situations in Week 17, and this one ranks near the top.
Tee Higgins - Over 47.5 receiving yards AND Over 3.5 receptions (DraftKings -112/-159): Another Ravens-Bengals player with another record on the horizon. Like Lamar Jackson above, Higgins needs exactly 92 yards in order to join A.J. Green and Chris Collinsworth as the only Cincinnati receivers to post 1,000 yards as a rookie. Higgins himself is also 149 receiving yards from Cincinnati’s rookie record, and with potential for garbage drives/targets galore in this projected blowout against the must-win Ravens, I expect Higgins to eat in the second half of this ball game at the very least, a half in which Baltimore could be resting defensive starters with a big lead. Higgins caught 4 balls for 62 yards the last time these two teams met and has now tallied at least five catches in four straight starts with Brandon Allen at QB.
Mark Andrews - Over 50.5 receiving yards AND Over 4 receptions (FanDuel -112/BetOnline -125): Andrews’ four best yardage games have come in the past four weeks, and it’s no coincidence he has truly emerged as one the league’s top three tight ends (sans a healthy George Kittle) following Nick Boyle’s injury. Andrews has posted lines of 6-56-1, 6-53-2 and 6-99 over his past three meetings against the division rival Bengals, a team that gave up a combined 7-93-1 to Houston Texans tight ends in Week 16. Andrews now has recorded at least five catches and 61 yards in five straight games, and with a must-win scenario on tap for Sunday, I expect Lamar to heavily target his best pass catcher early and often, all apologies in advance to Marquise Brown. Double dip the Andrews player prop chip with confidence here.
Justin Jefferson - Over 73.5 receiving yards (DraftKings -137): I mentioned on our Betting Predators NFL Week 17 preview podcast that one of the themes of the week would be Jefferson’s quest to claim the league’s rookie receiving record. The Vikings youngster needs just 111 receiving yards to claim hold to the rookie throne, and he’ll have plenty of help on the opposite side of the field against arguably the NFL’s worst secondary by a midwestern mile. The Lions have allowed the NFL’s most completions of 20+ yards (60), according to Establish The Run, and Jefferson himself is averaging 10 targets per game since Week 14. I’m betting on the rookie to clinch the record here, buoyed by the fact Minnesota will be without star back Dalvin Cook and leaning on Kirk Cousins and the passing game to end 2020 with a bang at Ford Field.
CeeDee Lamb - Over 52.5 receiving yards (FanDuel -102): CeeDee Lamb is also 111 receiving yards away from a record - similar to fellow rookie Jefferson above - but this time it’s for Dallas’ rookie receiving record. That’s not even the main reason we’re betting this over prop though. The New York Football Giants have struggled mightily to defend slot receivers all year, and since Andy Dalton returned under center Lamb is a close third in targets (36) behind Amari Cooper (38) and Michael Gallup (43), posting 25-297-2 in the process. Cooper himself was shut down by stud defensive back James Bradberry in these teams’ last meeting (4-2-23) while Lamb had a career day, catching eight of 11 targets for 124 yards. Lamb is averaging 75 yards per game over the past two weeks, posting lines of 7-5-85 and 5-3-65 in the process.
Michael Gallup - Over 49.5 receiving yards (BetOnline -114): The aforementioned Gallup has emerged as the Cowboys’ alpha WR, and for good reason. Once limited to a deep threat-only role, Gallup is being manufactured targets and touches all over the field and running a diverse set of routes. He leads the team in targets (43) since Dalton returned from injury and last week erupted for six catches, 121 yards and two touchdowns. He also caught all four of his targets for 73 yards in these teams’ last meeting, serving as Dalton’s safety blanket down the sideline in clutch moments after Dak Prescott suffered his season-ending ankle injury. Cooper’s daunting matchup with James Bradberry will only serve to funnel more targets to both Lamb and Gallup, giving them extra value on their prop lines in a must-win game with playoff hopes on the line. Give me all the Michael Gallup in DFS tournament lineups this week, too.
Calvin Ridley - Over 87.5 receiving yards (FanDuel -112): I’ve lost track of all the Ridley overs we’ve cashed over these past two months. The third-year stud wideout has posted 108+ receiving yards in four straight games (!) with target totals of 10, 12, 14 and 9 in the process. Against a pass-funnel defense that gave up 10,000 yards to Tyreek Hill in less than one quarter? All exaggeration aside, sign me TF up for another Ridley over bet in Week 17. The former Alabama Crimson Tide star has posted 10-163-1 and 6-85-1 in his past two meetings with Todd Bowles’ “stop the run at all costs” outdated defense and averaged 16.3 yards per catch on a season-high 14 targets just two weeks ago. Atlanta is slinging it heavy late in games while trailing, and with Tampa Bay as near-touchdown favorites I expect more of the same.
D’Andre Swift - Over 3.5 receptions (DraftKings -112): Swift has five targets in five straight games and has now recorded at least four catches in four straight, including four or more catches in five of seven games. With the Lions as +4 home dogs in this spot I believe that the potential for negative game script feeds perfectly into Swift’s skillset here What’s also most impressive, according to NumberFire, is that Swift’s 1.63 yards per route run is the eighth-best mark for a rookie running back since 2010. He has at least four targets in nine straight games and 11 of 12 on the season. Saints running backs combined for 10-7-45 through the air in Week 16 despite a massively positive game script, and in the Vikings last win (opponent facing negative game script) they allowed a season-high six catches to James Robinson.
*Pizza Bet/Bonus Prop - Adam Thielen To Score 3+ Touchdowns (FanDuel +2700): Emphasis on "Pizza Bet" here. Please note that this prop will not be included on our weekly record, whether we hit it or not. I simply wanted to highlight the fact that Thielen - like fellow wideout and teammate Justin Jefferson - is on the verge of a Vikings franchise record as well. Thielen is actually three TD's away from Randy Moss' single-season Minnesota record, and it's not crazy to think he can get it with this Vikings-Lions tilt sporting the second-highest O/U total (54) on the entire Week 17 slate. The odds should definitely be higher than 27 to 1 for a single player - especially a wide receiver - to score three touchdowns by himself, but Thielen actually has four separate games with two receiving touchdowns already this season. Is it that crazy to believe the Vikings, after being embarrassed on Christmas Day, won't scheme up a way to get Jefferson 111 yards and Thielen three TD's. It's worth a shot in the dark, at the very least, for this TD prop.