By Chris Dell
Author's note: The following player prop lines are used from either BetOnline, DraftKings or FanDuel. You'll also notice a lot of my props below, whether they are plays on unders or overs, strongly correlate with my weekly fantasy rankings, which you can find here.
- Chris' Prop Column Record: 126-87
- Sleepy's Bonus Prop Record: 8-5
Weekly Column Record (Chris + Sleepy):
- Week 1: 0-0
- Week 2: 10-4
- Week 3: 12-4
- Week 4: 9-8
- Week 5: 10-7
- Week 6: 9-11
- Week 7: 10-12
- Week 8: 6-7
- Week 9: 9-8
- Week 10: 12-6
- Week 11: 9-7
- Week 12: 11-5
- Week 13: 16-5
- Week 14: 11-8
- Total: 134-92 (59.3%)
Weekly Podcast Record (Chris Only):
- Week 1: 1-2
- Week 2: 2-1
- Week 3: 0-0
- Week 4: 3-0
- Week 5: 2-1
- Week 6: 0-0
- Week 7: 2-0
- Week 8: 0-1
- Week 9: 0-1
- Week 10: 1-1
- Week 11: 0-1
- Week 12: 0-0
- Week 13: 0-0
- Week 14: 1-1
- Week 15: 1-1
- Total = 13-10 (56.5%)
Podcast + Article Picks (Chris Only):
- 139-97 (58.9%)
Stefon Diggs - Over 82.5 receiving yards (DraftKings -112): I’d like to officially welcome you all to “WR1 Week,” where alpha wideouts run wild and absolutely obliterate opposing secondaries. That’s the theme for me at least, for Week 15, as Stefon Diggs is seemingly the first in a line of many top wide receivers with plus matchups in store. Diggs’ 187 air yards were the second most in the league in Week 14, and he also tallied 14 targets to go along with his 10-130-1 monstrous line against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday Night Football. Diggs gets an even better spot on Saturday afternoon, facing a Denver Broncos defense that’s without its top three defensive backs - as well as top backup Duke Dawson - and just allowed 12-8-84 to Robby Anderson and the short-handed Carolina Panthers. Cluster injuries mean that Diggs will most likely see rookie Michael Ojemudia and former UDFA De’Vante Bausby, who allowed a combined 10 of 15 completions for 125 yards in their coverage in Week 14. Diggs’ usage is truly elite this year, as the former Minnesota Viking is averaging 11 targets per game over the Buffalo Bills’ last five contests (10.3 for the season) and is on pace for career highs in both receptions and receiving yards. Buffalo WR’s are also averaging a league-best 79% catchable target rate, setting up one of the game’s smoothest route runners for a big day on Saturday and a prime candidate to clear 100+ yards. Diggs now has double-digit targets in four of his past five games - including seven straight games with at least nine targets - and has racked up 90+ yards in five of six contests. Want more? Diggs’ Week 14 outing was his fifth 100-yard game of the year, in addition to four other games totaling between 86-93 yards. I talked about this prop quite a bit on our NFL Week 15 Money Picks/Player Props podcast as well, and I love the over 82.5 here.
KJ Hamler - Over 34.5 receiving yards (FanDuel -112): I’ll be the first to admit that this is a relatively thin play compared to most of what you’ve seen on our weekly player props column this season, but hear me out for a second. Hamler, who plays a majority of his snaps from the slot, will line up with the Buffalo Bills’ Taron Johnson in coverage in Week 15, with Johnson currently allowing a lowly 75.4% catch rate in his coverage. Minus the “Kendall Hinton Saga" in Week 12, Hamler has actually cleared 35 or more receiving yards in four of his past five games, the only under occurring two weeks ago against a Kansas City Chiefs team that defends opposing wide receivers better than most teams in the league. Hamler is fresh off a team-high/career-high 86 receiving yards in Week 14 as well, and the Denver Broncos would be foolish not to give the rookie slot stud more looks on Saturday given his plus matchup over the middle of the field. We also get a more-than-solid chance for negative game script and junk time plays galore in this ball game, and with the Bills getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks quite well as of late, I look for Drew Lock to get the ball out of his hands early and often to both Hamler and tight end Noah Fant (see below), who will provide more of a security blanket in the short-to-intermediate areas of the field than perimeter wide receivers Tim Patrick and Jerry Jeudy. Hamler’s steady slot role, as well as his ability to stretch the field if needed - the dude was an absolute burner in college at Penn State - give him ample opportunity to easily clear this low 34.5 prop total.
Noah Fant - Over 38.5 receiving yards (FanDuel -134): The aforementioned Fant saw his replacement tight ends in Nick Vannett and Troy Fumagalli combine for 9-8-73-1 in Week 14 despite the Denver Broncos being in a positive/neutral game script for much of their afternoon victory over the Carolina Panthers. Now onto Fant’s Week 15 opponent, the Buffalo Bills, who despite getting Matt Milano back at linebacker are seeing a whopping 23% target share against them go to the tight end position (fourth most). The Bills also allow the eighth most yards per target to enemy tight ends (7.86), and I believe we’re taking advantage of a somewhat ignored prop line here with Fant, who not only left Week 14 in the first quarter (stomach virus/food poisoning), but has also missed multiple weeks over the past month with various injuries. Fant gets a plus draw against a Buffalo squad that ranks 27th in fantasy points per game allowed to the tight end position, and despite missing multiple weeks of action he still ranks third on the team in total targets (44) from Drew Lock in 2020, trailing only the currently-hobbled Jerry Jeudy (66) and Tim Patrick (50), the latter of whom is likely to see a lot of Tre’Davious White in coverage. The Broncos will also welcome back top tier LT Garret Bolles for this Saturday showdown, giving Lock more time to connect for big plays with one of the most athletic and talented tight ends in this league in Fant. Outside of the Week 12 Kendall Hinton fiasco, Fant has seen at least five targets in three straight contests, going for 5-4-55 and 7-4-53 in his past two full games played and clearing 45+ yards in four of his past five. Projected negative game script and junk time yards only help boost our cause here, and I have Fant ranked firmly inside the top 10 of my Week 15 fantasy rankings, ahead of TE stalwarts such as Evan Engram and Rob Gronkowski.
Davante Adams - Over 87.5 receiving yards (DraftKings -118): Another alpha WR1 on our Week 15 Saturday slate, another over bet for us to confidently place. Frankly I could write up a 50+ page thesis on how Davante Adams could straight up crush this receiving prop and make the books look silly for setting it below 90, but let me just highlight a handful of the numbers here: Adams’ 22 targets over the past two weeks more than double that of his next closest teammate (Robert Tonyan, 10), and in Week 15 he gets a Panthers secondary allowing the fourth-most yards per passing play (7.2) since Week 7 after a surprisingly strong start to the 2020 season. Adams is averaging a ridiculous 105.8 receiving yards per game since returning from injury in Week 6, a stretch of nine games that includes five 100+ yard performances and at least nine targets in every single contest. A few more numbers for ya? Well, there have been seven wideouts to see double digit targets against Carolina this year, and ALL OF THEM have scored at least 19.7 PPR fantasy points, according to FantasyPros’ Mike Tagliere, including eruption lines of 18-9-113 to Tyreek Hill and 19-13-132 to Keenan Allen. Yikes. To add insult to injury, the Panthers are giving up a league-high 55.7% completion rate on 15+ yard throws down the field, meaning that Adams - as well as teammate and fellow field-stretcher Marquez Valdes-Scantling - are prime candidates for big time plays. The Aaron Rodgers MVP campaign presses on in Week 15 with Adams as its lead spokesman, and a date with a Panthers team allowing an overall 69.2% completion rate only furthers our cause for a strong over bet here. Carolina is sacking opposing quarterbacks at the fifth-lowest rate in the NFL, giving Rodgers and his league-best 128.8 QB rating with a clean pocket all the time he needs to connect with his alpha. Lock Adams into your DFS lineups without hesitation, too, in all formats.
Robert Tonyan - Over 3.5 receptions AND Over 39.5 receiving yards (FanDuel -102/-112): “Baby Gronk,” as some like to call him, is truly benefitting from the aforementioned Aaron Rodgers 2020 MVP campaign. Tonyan has caught 46 of 52 passes thrown his way this season (!) and with fellow tight end and teammate Jace Sternberger ruled out for this game, Tonyan now only has to compete with wiley old vet Mercedes Lewis for snaps and routes at his position. Tonyan has tallied at least five targets and four catches in four straight games, and Carolina’s opponents are in fact targeting the tight end position at the second-highest clip in the NFL (107 total targets). The Panthers’ 75 receptions allowed to tight ends is tied for the league lead (5.8 receptions allowed per game), and they rank in the bottom 10 with a 70%+ catch rate allowed to the position. We’ve seen big receiving lines allowed by Carolina to the likes of Travis Kelce (10-159), TJ Hockenson (4-68), Hayden Hurst (5-54), Kyle Rudolph (7-68), Rob Gronkowski/Cameron Brate (5-82-2) and Nick Vannett/Troy Fumagalli (8-83-1), setting up Tonyan for a potential top three fantasy finish in Week 15’s semi-final round against a Panthers’ zone defense that is ripe for the picking. Tonyan is averaging a robust 10.3 yards per target, and need I mention his QB is on pace for 48 passing touchdowns this season, with just four total INT’s to show for so far? Allow me to double dip the player prop chip for this projected high-scoring affair, as I'm taking Tonyan to go over his receptions and receiving yards in this spot.
(Bonus Prop/Pizza Bet) Marquez Valdes-Scantling - Longest reception over 19.5 yards OR total receiving yards over 41.5 (FanDuel -112/-134): We could easily just play the total receiving yards prop here, but I also wouldn’t mind shaking it up a bit on a special Saturday slate and taking MVS to come down with at least one long catch in this contest. I touched on most of Carolina’s pitiful secondary numbers in our previous prop plays above, but one that I left out reflects directly on MVS and the deep threat he provides: The Panthers are the worst in the NFL at defending deep passes on the right side of the field - where MVS tends to put in most of his work - according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA metrics. MVS ranks top 15 in the league with 20 deep targets on the year, and with the Panthers allowing a league-high 56% completion rate on 15+ yard passes, I’m willing to throw a pizza bet on MVS’ 4.37 speed and 6-foot-4, 206-pound frame to haul in at least one deep shot. MVS’ air yards share (29%) also ranks top 20 in the NFL, and despite being hampered with an achilles injury over the past month - which seemed to coincide with a few down games in a row - we saw him pop back up on Aaron Rodgers’ radar in Week 14 by hauling in all six of his targets for 85 yards and a touchdown. The artist formerly known as MVS had strung together three straight games with a catch of at least 45 yards prior to Week 13 - including long grabs of 47, 78 and 52 yards - and he’s now had at least six targets in three of his past four games. The opportunity and the matchup in this game both align to give MVS arguably the biggest opportunity he has had all year. Feel free to fire him up with confidence as a low-cost, high-ceiling DFS play as well.
(Bonus Prop/Pizza Bet) Mike Davis - Over 25.5 receiving yards (DraftKings -112): CMC’s heralded backup RB hauled in five of six targets for 42 receiving yards in Week 14 as the Carolina Panthers surprisingly trailed the Denver Broncos for much of the afternoon. Game script should be in our favor yet again in Week 15, with the host Green Bay Packers steadily rising as now -9 home favorites and this game sporting a healthy o/u total of 51.5. What’s even better for Davis’ case here is the fact that the Packers have given up a league-high 660 receiving yards to opposing running backs this season. Running backs have in fact seen a target on 21% of pass attempts against Green Bay in 2020, the fourth-highest mark in the NFL, while Davis himself has now seen five or more targets in four of his past five games and is coming off a Week 14 contest in which he played 73% of the snaps and totaled 16 touches. “The Pack” have also allowed the most fantasy points per game through the air to enemy backs, with 10 of 13 of their games seeing opposing rushers tally 28+ receiving yards against them. D’Andre Swift (5-4-26), David Montgomery (6-5-40) and Nyheim Hines (4-3-31) each exceeded this number over the past month, despite both Swift and Hines ceding a ton of playing time to other running backs in their respective offenses. I expect Davis to hold steady with at least 67% of the snaps in this matchup, and with potential dump downs and garbage time points in store, I can easily see Davis exceeding his season-long average of 30.9 receiving yards here.