Chris Dell's Week 15 Player Props (Sunday)

By Chris Dell

@MaddJournalist

Author's note: The following player prop lines are used from either BetOnline, DraftKings or FanDuel. You'll also notice a lot of my props below, whether they are plays on unders or overs, strongly correlate with my weekly fantasy rankings, which you can find here.

• Chris' Overall Prop Column Record: 126-87
• Sleepy's Overall Bonus Prop Record: 8-5

Weekly Prop Column Record (Chris + Sleepy):

• Week 1: 0-0
• Week 2: 10-4
• Week 3: 12-4
• Week 4: 9-8
• Week 5: 10-7
• Week 6: 9-11
• Week 7: 10-12
• Week 8: 6-7
• Week 9: 9-8
• Week 10: 12-6
• Week 11: 9-7
• Week 12: 11-5
• Week 13: 16-5
• Week 14: 11-8
• Total: 134-92 (59.3%)

Weekly Prop Podcast Record (Chris' Record Only):

• Week 1: 1-2
• Week 2: 2-1
• Week 3: 0-0
• Week 4: 3-0
• Week 5: 2-1
• Week 6: 0-0
• Week 7: 2-0
• Week 8: 0-1
• Week 9: 0-1
• Week 10: 1-1
• Week 11: 0-1
• Week 12: 0-0
• Week 13: 0-0
• Week 14: 1-1
• Total = 12-9 (57.1%)

Podcast + Article Picks (Chris' Record Only):

• 138-96 (59.0%)

(NEW) Donovan Peoples-Jones - Over 1.5 receptions AND Over 17.5 receiving yards (FanDuel -128/-112): This is about as thin of a double dip player prop wager as we can get here, but I also can’t ignore these numbers. Peoples-Jones has filled in admirably for the injured Khadarel Hodge over the past few weeks, hauling in 5 of 8 targets for 168 yards, including long grabs of 37 and 75 in back to back games. Hodge is listed as active for tonight, but I still don’t expect his presence to completely remove “DPJ” from the field. The Michigan rookie has burners, clocking in at 4.48 in the 40 yard-dash, and he sports a more-than-healthy 19.9 aDOT on the year. The rookie also ran a route on a solid 72% of dropbacks and played 70% of snaps in Week 14 against a tough Baltimore Ravens secondary. I completely understand the risk that we’re taking here, which is that the New York Giants simply can’t score enough to force the Cleveland Browns to air it out. But the fact that James Bradberry (COVID) is out for this game means that Baker Mayfield & Co might have a bit of extra incentive to throw it for at least one half, if not a tad longer. With all things consider, I'm willing to attack 1.5/17.5 for a talented rookie who is averaging 3.5 receptions and 84 receiving yards over the past two games, coming against even tougher competition.

(NEW) Kyler Murray - Over 46.5 rushing yards (FanDuel -102): The kid they call Kyler had 47 rushing yards on 13 carries in Week 14 against the New York Football Giants, seemingly shaking off any lingering rust from his shoulder injury from about a month ago. The usage seems modest for Murray, at best, until you realize that the Arizona Cardinals took their foot off the gas pedal early in this game and didn’t press the issue much offensively in the second half as their defense dominate Daniel Jones & Co from end to end. Murray’s rushing prop lines were consistently set in the high 50s to 60s early in the year when he was at full health, and I don’t believe that the books have woken up to the fact that he’s back at full health yet again. Cardinals games are always seeing more snaps than you’re typical football team, as I mentioned on our player props podcast, with their contests averaging the third-most combined plays (133.5) and Arizona itself sporting the league’s fastest situation neutral-pace and no-huddle rate (38%) on offense.

(NEW) Miles Sanders - Over 61.5 rushing yards (DraftKings -112): Sanders saw his Week 14 snap share skyrocket above 80% (highest since Week 5) and immediately benefitted from wide run lanes with Jalen Hurts and the RPO offense under center. As per PFF’s Dwaine McFarland, he also was active in both the two-minute offense (67%) and long down and distance situations (83%). The Arizona Cardinals, on the other hand, are allowing a lowly 2.46 yards before contact to opposing running backs and are middle of the pack (at best) in allowing 4.3 yards per carry. Sanders himself is averaging 3.64 yards after contact, the fourth-best clip in the NFL, meaning that the former Penn State product will be seeing additional opportunities both before contact and after contact. We’ve already seen Sanders rip off three runs of at least 74 yards this year, all coming against top tier rushing defenses in the New Orleans Saints, Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens, and I like both his usage and new offensive situation heading into Week 15 to help him clear this low total for a true bell cow type of RB1 in this "Philly Philly" Eagles offense.

(NEW) Jalen Hurts - Over 57.5 rushing yards (DraftKings -112): The Arizona Cardinals allowed Josh Allen and Russell Wilson to average 54.7 rushing yards per game in their two matchups with the Buffalo Bills and Seattle Seahawks earlier this season, and now they’re going to face a signal-caller who likes to run it even more. While I surely don’t expect Hurts to top 100 yards on the ground in two straight weeks - although I wouldn’t be surprised if he comes close - I do expect him to stay active as both a scrambler and with designed runs out of the backfield. The Cardinals are toughest against the pass, but they can be taken advantage of on the ground, which is why I look for the Philadelphia Eagles to use Hurts and Sanders early and often in this contest. Arizona also allowed 46 rushing yards to Cam Newton, 35 to Tua Tagovailoa and 32 to Teddy Bridgewater, setting up Hurts for a solid fantasy floor and DFS option with his legs as well. 

(NEW) Tyreek Hill - Over 77.5 receiving yards (DraftKings -134): With Hill’s yardage prop total set about 10 yards lower than that of his teammate, Travis Kelce, I believe we’re getting some solid value here and personally I’d play this over 80 and close to 85 with the big-play threat that is Hill. Tyreek the Freak has seen a 31% target share since Week 9, good for third-most in the league, and with the New Orleans Saints playing man coverage at a league-high 64% of snaps over the past five weeks, as per Sports Info Solutions, Tyreek is indeed set up to run wild in this late afternoon showdown. Hill will see a lot of Marshon Lattimore, a guy we’ve feared in year’s past, but not this year. Lattimore has given up the second-most deep balls in the NFL this year and won’t be following Hill into the slot either, where the wideout see a healthy amount of snaps and routes. Hill has an NFL-best eight TD’s on 20-plus yard receptions and in the slot will also be facing Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, who is allowing 45-of-65 passes for 402 yards.

(NEW) Travis Kelce - Over 6.5 receptions (FanDuel -134): Kelce entered Week 15 as the league’s receiving yardage leader and the sports books have taken notice, jacking his yardage prop in the high 80’s for this game. I’m perfectly fine getting the better number here with his receptions prop though, as we’ve now seen the uber-elite tight end top eight catches in six straight games with lines of 10-8-136, 12-8-136, 8-8-82, 10-8-127, 12-10-159 and 12-8-109. The former Cincinnati Bearcat sports a ridiclous 25% target share for a tight end and his Week 15 opponent, the New Orleans Saints, have faced the seventh-most targets to the position all year. Although there have been just two tight ends to top 50 yards receiving against the Saints in 2020, we did see Darren Waller post a massive 16-12-103 line against them back in Week 2 and Kelce himnself ranks sixth in the NFL in yards per route run (2.57). I think the line should be set around 7 or 7.5 here, so I’m willing to bet a slight edge on the game’s best tight end.

Calvin Ridley - Over 80.5 receiving yards (BetOnline -114): Ridley is averaging a truly elite 30% target share this season without Julio Jones in the lineup and is coming off a 36.4% target share in Week 14 in an even tougher matchup against defensive back Casey Hayward. He will see more of Carlton Davis in Week 15, the same guy who was absolutely roasted by Tyreek Hill a few weeks back and has allowed 27-of-37 completions for 455 yards since Week 9. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are one of a handful of teams in the NFL who sell out to stop the run, but can still be beat quite easily through the air, similar to the New York Jets, Philadelphia Eagles and New Orleans Saints. Sign me up for Ridley’s over here, as he has now turned in back to back 100+ yard games and 90+ in three of his past four, plus gets the fast track field playing back at home and with the possibility for both negative game script and garbage time plays late.

Brandon Aiyuk - Over 74.5 receiving yards (FanDuel -112): Aiyuk’s emergence as the NFL’s most talented rookie wide receiver has both been unexpected and pleasantly surprising towards the end of the 2020 campaign. The Arizona State product has now churned out five straight games of at least five catches, seven targets and 75 receiving yards, in addition to putting up 90+ in four of his past five outings. He gets a dream spot against the Dallas Cowboy’s woeful secondary in Week 15, a secondary that still has Chidobe Awuzie on the COVID list and is just now bringing back Trevon Diggs from IR. I mentioned on our player props podcast episode that Aiyuk leads the San Francisco 49ers in catches (34), yards (436), TD’s (3) and first-down conversions (24) from Nick Mullens this year, and he’s fresh off a 41% target share (17 targets) in Week 14 in a tough matchup against the Washington Football Team, a game where both he and Kendrick Bourne ran 94%+ routes after Deebo Samuel went down early. Over the past five weeks Aiyuk ranks second in the NFL in both targets (57) and receiving yards (498), and he’s also fifth in both catches (36) and target share (30%) during that span. I expect the Cowboys to stay competitive enough to force the 49ers to stay somewhat balanced on offense, meaning that Aiyuk should feast early and often while getting constantly peppered with targets. Fire him up with confidence in your DFS lineups, too.

A.J. Brown - Over 67.5 receiving yards (DraftKings -112): Man, what a talent this guy is. If you didn’t see Brown’s ridiculously effortless one-handed touchdown grab in tight coverage in Week 14, make sure to hit up YouTube and watch it for yourself. Brown now gets a putrid Detroit Lions secondary in Week 15 that insists on playing man-to-man coverage despite allowing an NFL-worst 9.42 yards per target. Add that to Brown’s elite-level yards after the catch ability and we have a recipe for an absolute blowup spot in this matchup. The Lions will also again be without top two corners in Desmond Trufant and Jeffrey Okudah for this game, leaving behind an injury-riddled secondary that already ranks dead last in yardage allowed per game to (87.8) to lead wide receivers. With Matthew Stafford back under center for the Lions I expect them to at least press this Tennessee Titans offense enough early for AJ Brown to put in some work.

T.Y. Hilton - Over 59.5 receiving yards (FanDuel -134): We all know the Hilton/Houston narrative by now. Three of his past four games against the Texans have seen the veteran wideout post lines of 8-110-1, 6-74-1 and 9-199, and he’s fresh off finishing as the overall fantasy WR5 in Week 14 after torching the Las Vegas Raiders’ awful defensive backs for 7-5-86-2. Hilton has now run 87%+ routes in back to back weeks with target shares of 27% and 31%. His average depth of target (aDOT) has also topped 15 yards in three of his past four games, with a more-than-solid 141 air yards against Las Vegas. With no Bradley Roby or respectable defensive backs to speak of (my apologies in advance to Vernon Hargreaves and Keion Crossen), I expect Hilton to have his way with Houston yet again in this divisional rivalry.

Jonathan Taylor - Over 76.5 rushing yards (FanDuel -122): Taylor’s past three games have seen this rookie running back put up rushing lines of 22-90, 13-91, and 20-150-2, the second of which came against this same Houston Texans defense in Week 13 and a defense that has been simply incapable of stopping the run all season long. Week 14 also saw Taylor earn his second-highest rushing attempt share of the season (65%), and with the Texans allowing a league-high 5.38 yards per carry - in addition to 183.3 total yards per game to opposing running backs - we’re set up for a Hilton smash spot again here.

Sleepy J's Bonus Best Bet Prop: Latavius Murray Over 34.5 rushing yards (DraftKings -120)