By Chris Dell
Author's note: The following player prop lines are used from either BetOnline, DraftKings or FanDuel. You can also view our NFL 2020 regular season record (week by week) at the bottom of this article. My main goal for the playoff editions of this player props column is to give you a variety of bets that I currently like or strongly lean to for the upcoming weekend. Since we have limited options in the playoffs - a reduced number of games/teams still playing - unfortunately we now have less of an edge with our prop options than we did during the regular season. Because of this, I will do my best to highlight my stronger plays at the top of this article with a best bet or two if possible, followed by other plays that I believe still hold value at the current available lines and in regards to our fantasy football point projections. Please keep in mind, as has been the case all season, that these player props strongly correlate with my weekly fantasy football rankings, which you can find here, as I've ranked the top 75 players for this weekend's divisional round.
- Chris' Overall 2020 Prop Column Record: 159-111
- Sleepy's Overall 2020 Bonus Prop Record: 8-7
Update: With possible rain, wind and snow coming to Buffalo for the Ravens/Bills game on Saturday night I have refrained from writing up any props for that game. With no weather concerns, I'd be strongly looking toward Lamar Jackson/Josh Allen rushing overs, as well as attacking low receiving props for the likes of Gabriel Davis. If the weather looks to be lightening up as the day progresses, I will consider adding at least one or two prop plays for that game. As it stands for now, however, here are my favorite prop plays below for the Saturday afternoon game between the Rams/Packers, where weather is expected to be 32 degrees with high winds of nine miles per hour - hardly a frozen day in the tundra that is Lambeau Field.
(Best Bet) Cam Akers - Over 14.5 receiving yards (DraftKings -134): Cam Akers’ rookie breakout campaign took a tad longer to take place than most folks expected (myself included), but man, the dude has been an absolute workhorse over his past five games. The former Florida State stud running back has now totaled 124 touches for 612 during this span (24.8 touches/game, 122.4 yards/game). “Other Rams running backs” have totaled just 29 touches over that same five-game stretch, and since returning from his ankle injury just two weeks ago Akers has seen 49 carries, six targets and 75% of the Los Angeles Rams’ running back targets, averaging a whopping 27.5 touches per game. He has at least 22 receiving yards in four of those five contests as well, posting 52 and 45 receiving yards over the past two weeks while catching all six of his targets. Akers closed the regular season with at least three targets in three straight games and ran a route on 62% of dropbacks (18 routes) in L.A.’s upset victory over the Seattle Seahawks in Wild Card Weekend (also played 73% of snaps despite Malcolm Brown handling clean-up duties with the Rams up 30-13 late). Akers now faces a Green Bay defense that has allowed the third most receiving yards (764) and third most receiving touchdowns to opposing running backs. To add insult to injury, the Packers are also bottom 10 in the NFL in allowing running back receptions on the year (90). With 35 routes run, six catches, six targets and 97 receiving yards in his past two games - in addition to the Rams being +6.5 underdogs on the road and possibly needing to throw a ton late - this by far and away my favorite play on Saturday’s two-game slate. I’d personally play this prop up to 19.5 yards.
Cam Akers - Longest reception over 9.5 yards (FanDuel -112): Stop me if you’ve heard this before: the Packers are flat out #notgood at defending opposing running backs whether it’s on the ground or through the air. Green Bay in the regular season allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game to RB’s - as well as the third most fantasy points per opportunity, according to FantasyPros - and despite Packers opponents averaging a league-low 60.9 plays per game, there were just three games all year where enemy RB’s failed to top 22 touches against them. Opportunities for both heavy volume and explosive plays await Akers in this Saturday afternoon showdown, and the rookie actually comes into this divisional round game having posted long receptions of 16, 22, 38 and 45 in four straight games. The only recent game where he didn’t clear 22 receiving yards and a long catch of 16 yards was a game where he left early to injury against the New York Jets on December 20th. Akers is averaging 11.2 yards per reception on the year as well, and with his current share of the running back snaps, routes and targets in this offense - in addition to negative game script playing in our favor - this is as close to double dip best bet as we can get with playing this with the over 14.5 receiving yards prop mentioned above. Last but not least, the Packers allowed long receptions of 9.5+ yards this year to the following: D’Andre Swift (5-5-60, long of 17), Alvin Kamara (14-13-139, long of 52), Ito Smith (3-3-24, long of 11), David Johnson/Duke Johnson (9-9-85, longs of 30 and 16), Dalvin Cook (3-2-63, long of 50), Nyheim HInes/Jonathan Taylor/Jordan Wilkins (9-8-70, longs of 15 and 13), David Montgomery/Ryan Nall (7-6-50, longs of 13 and 10), D’Andre Swift/Adrian Peterson/Kerryon Johnson (7-6-59, longs of 17 and 23 and 10), Rodney Smith (4-3-24, long of 11) and David Montgomery again (9-9-63, long of 14). The funny thing is that I haven’t mentioned the fact both right guard David Edwarda and slot WR Cooper Kupp have both missed practice all week (three straight DNP’s each) and could force even more passing volume towards the running backs in a game where Sean McVay will do his best to give Goff (thumb injury) easy check downs and safe throws to make in the short areas of the field. I also don't hate a DraftKings matchup play on Akers > Aaron Jones for most receiving yards at +124, especially given the -6.5 Packers spread and projected game scripts for each team here.
(Pizza Bet/Bonus Prop) Aaron Rodgers - Under 24.5 completions OR Under 33.5 pass attempts (BetOnline -114/FanDuel -112): Efficiency is the name of the game for soon-to-be MVP Aaron Rodgers, who led the NFL this season in completion rate (70.7%), TD passes (48), TD rate (9.1%) and INT rate (1.0%) with his highest yards per attempt clip (8.2) since 2014. With his covered regular season MVP award already secured, however, Rodgers will face his toughest test since Week 5’s blowout loss to Tampa Bay, a game in which he went 16-for-35 for 160 yards in a 38-10 defeat. Rodgers was pressured on a season-high 43.9% of dropbacks in that matchup and was 4-for-13 for 48 yards under pressure, and just like in Week 5 back then, this weekend he will also be without starting left tackle and all-world offensive lineman David Bahtiari. Rodgers’ divisional round opponent tallied the most sacks of all 32 teams this season (53) and will look to tee off on right guard/right tackle Lucas Patrick and Rick Wagner with the dangerous rushing duo of Aaron Donald and Leonard Floyd on Saturday. The Rams held Russell Wilson to a season-low 40.7% completion rate in last week’s wild card weekend win, a game in which Wilson completed just 11 passes despite trailing 30-13 in the second half and facing a heavy negative game script late. The Rams haven’t allowed 25 or more completions in a game in eight weeks, when Tom Brady completed 26-of-48 passes for 216 yards while trailing. I don’t expect the Packers to be playing from behind all that much in this one, if at all, and with Green Bay methodically draining clock at a high rate all year, I don’t expect Rodgers to have to throw much to secure a win and a bid in the NFC championship game. Since Green Bay’s overtime loss to the Colts two months ago, Rodgers has totaled completion rates of 21, 25, 26, 20, 21 and 19. That’s three straight with 21 or less completions and 21 or less in 4 of his last 6. Los Angeles also ranks number one in yards per pass attempt allowed (6.2), completions of 20+ yards and completions of 40+ yards, and its offense has scored a touchdown on just two of its past 14 possessions over its past four games, as well as just a touchdown on 4 of its past 45 offensive possessions. This all goes to say I don’t think the Rams can push the Packers offensively, even though their defense presents a mighty challenge. Rodgers' pass attempt totals have dipped below 29.5 in three straight games as well, and as -6.5 favorites I don't expect the Packers to need to press the issue through the air against arguably the league's best secondary here. Rodgers' 77.1% completion rate when kept clean ranked also second in the league, sure, but under pressure, however, that rate dropped to 45.3%, which ranked a lowly 29th.
Weekly Prop 2020 Column Record (Chris + Sleepy):
- Week 1: 0-0
- Week 2: 10-4
- Week 3: 12-4
- Week 4: 9-8
- Week 5: 10-7
- Week 6: 9-11
- Week 7: 10-12
- Week 8: 6-7
- Week 9: 9-8
- Week 10: 12-6
- Week 11: 9-7
- Week 12: 11-5
- Week 13: 16-5
- Week 14: 11-8
- Week 15: 10-10
- Week 16: 11-2
- Week 17: 12-14
- Total: 167-118 (58.6%)
Weekly Prop 2020 Podcast Record (Chris' Record Only):
- Week 1: 1-2
- Week 2: 2-1
- Week 3: 0-0
- Week 4: 3-0
- Week 5: 2-1
- Week 6: 0-0
- Week 7: 2-0
- Week 8: 0-1
- Week 9: 0-1
- Week 10: 1-1
- Week 11: 0-1
- Week 12: 0-0
- Week 13: 0-0
- Week 14: 1-1
- Week 15: 1-1
- Week 16: 0-0
- Week 17: 1-0
- Total = 14-10 (58.3%)
Podcast + Article Picks (Chris' Record Only):
- 173-121 (58.8%)