By Chris Dell
Please Note: The player prop lines below were available at the time they were given to our NFL 2021 In-Season Package subscribers on our Betting Predators Private Discord Channel. In order to get an alert the moment after I place one of my prop bets and get the best line available, I highly recommend signing up for our in-season package, which gives you access to my best bet player props + DFS top plays for every primetime game AND every Sunday main slate. You'll also get access to our private Discord, as well as our Betting Predators' NFL Power Ratings, Lookahead Line Forecasts and Player Prop Podcast Article/Written Recaps. Lastly, you'll notice that a lot of my best bet player props also strongly correlate with my weekly fantasy football rankings, which you can find here. Any questions? Hit me on Twitter @MaddJournalist:
- Chris' Overall 2020 Props Column Record: 159-111 (58.9%)
2020 Weekly Column Record (Chris' Props + Sleepy's Bonus Prop):
- Week 1: 0-0
- Week 2: 10-4
- Week 3: 12-4
- Week 4: 9-8
- Week 5: 10-7
- Week 6: 9-11
- Week 7: 10-12
- Week 8: 6-7
- Week 9: 9-8
- Week 10: 12-6
- Week 11: 9-7
- Week 12: 11-5
- Week 13: 16-5
- Week 14: 11-8
- Week 15: 10-10
- Week 16: 11-2
- Week 17: 12-14
- Total: 167-118 (58.6%)
2020 Weekly Podcast Record (Chris' Props Only):
- Week 1: 1-2
- Week 2: 2-1
- Week 3: 0-0
- Week 4: 3-0
- Week 5: 2-1
- Week 6: 0-0
- Week 7: 2-0
- Week 8: 0-1
- Week 9: 0-1
- Week 10: 1-1
- Week 11: 0-1
- Week 12: 0-0
- Week 13: 0-0
- Week 14: 1-1
- Week 15: 1-1
- Week 16: 0-0
- Week 17: 1-0
- Total = 14-10 (58.3%)
2020 Podcast + Column Record (Chris' Props Only):
- Total = 173-121 (58.8%)
Last Update: 8:05 p.m. ET on Sunday, September 12th
Andy Dalton's lack of efficiency down the field is evident and has been for many, many years, and it will be magnified especially in this matchup. We've got mooney projected for 40-41 yards thats a little too much even for projections sake given the change at QB and the fact he might see a lot of Jalen Ramsey tonight, who likely won't always travel into the slot to defend Allen Robinson. we've got a very low week 1 total of 45.5 in a primetime game. ill fade most of CHI tonight overall as a whole. A whopping24.5% of Mooney’s targets came from 20+ yards in 2020, and against an L.A. Rams secondary that allowed the league’s fewest 20-plus-yard completions (36) last season, we expect the chances of him getting free are worth betting against here on SNF. Buy price: 42.5
Kmet came on strong at the tail end of 2020 despite inefficient quarterback play in Chicago, tallying 3+ reception on four of his past six games, including three of his last five regular season outings with 6+ targets and 4+ catches. We're getting one year closer to a true breakout campaign for Kmet, and one year closer to the now 35-year old Jimmy Graham hanging up the cleats. Over the last seven games of the regular season Kmet outsnapped Graham 87% to 45% and eclipsed him in target share with a 15.9% to 9.1% clip and we expect those trends to continue into Week 1, especially with A-Rob & Co dealing with the challenge of having to contend with Ramsey. Dalton has favored TE's in the past and he'll certainly need the extra security blanket come SNF. Buy Price: -135
Let's circle back to the 2019 Tyler Higbee for a moment. WITHOUT Gerald Everett in town (injured at the time) Higbee burst onto the national scene and fantasy circles with a monster close to the year, snagging 5+ catches in six straight games to close the year with a minimum of 6 targets in each of those game. Over his last half he had 7+ catches and 8+ targets minimum. Over his last three had had 8+ catches and 11+ targets minimum. You get my point by now, right? Well Everett is literally out of town now, signing with division rival Seattle over the offseason and leaving Higbee with not just 62 tight end targets to potentially soak up, but also an improved quarterback under center and overall improved offensive scheme with Stafford/McVay. The projections are modest on Higbee to start the year in a game with a low total of 45.5, so I would only recommend this at 3.5 receptions. Buy price: -140
Sammy Watkins UNDER 43.5 Receiving Yards @ FanDuel -114
Disclaimer: we originally gave this play on our private betting Discord channel earlier this week at 40.5 but were quickly alerted by one of our subscribers that FanDuel was (and still is) hanging the 43.5 for Watkins. The Ravens should run all over Las Vegas on Monday night, in addition to the fact they just signed their star TE Mark Andrews to a lucrative deal. Marquis Brown is still the #1 receiver in a low volume passing game in Baltimore, and frankly it's tough to find any instances where a pass catcher not named Andrews or Brown last year totaled over 30 or 35 yards through the air, let alone 40 yards. This prop is juiced to the under for a reason, but not enough. Sammy Watkins often struggled to even top this while playing with Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City, making this as close to an auto play under we can get for a prop. We'd still also play the current DK line we originally played, which has dropped one yard. Buy price: 39.5 yards
Elijah Moore OVER 3.5 Receptions @ DraftKings -130
Similar to our play on Rondale Moore for Arizona, we simply love the spot for the rookie Elijah Moore to display why beat writers throughout camp called him the Jets' best offensive player. With Jamison Crowder out and Keelan Cole looking iffy at best we expect Moore to slide right into the slot and step into a great matchup against Carolina, whose primary strengths in the secondary come on the outside with first round pick/DB Jaycee Horn and others. We have Moore projected for 5+ targets and 4+ catches today, and if Cole gets officially ruled out this number might disappear entirely. Bet on talented rookies in Week 1 who have clearly defined roles and whose teams went out of their to draft them with high draft capital as well. The price tag on Moore's name will never be lower than it is right now. Buy low, and profti. Buy price: -150
DK Metcalf OVER 75.5 Receiving Yards @ FoxBet -120
We missed on 74.5 yards earlier in the week, BUT we have better reasons to make this bet now just one yard higher, most notably due to the Indianapolis Colts being healthier with their QB/LT getting upgraded AND top DB Xavier Rhodes being ruled out, who would've been a tougher draw than most for a similarly big-bodied wideout in DK Metcalf. The Colts are now expected to start journeyman T.J. Carrie and third-year disappointment Rock Ya-Sin at cornerback against Seattle. If we learned anything last year, it's to bet on DK Metcalf and cash, especially in week 1 where we'll have a new OC in Shane Waldron who is out to prove he can make in-game adjustments unlike Brian Schottenheimer in 2020. DK could lead the league in receiving yards this year, and to be frank that's not even close to a bold statement. Buy price: 78.5 yards
Julio Jones OVER 61.5 Receiving Yards @ BetMGM -125
This might be the healthiest we've seen Julio Jones in years, and he enters Week 1 in a proverbial smash spot against an opposing Cardinals offense that will push the pace and play right into Tennessee's hands offensively. Tannehill has been one of the league's most efficient QB's since taking over under center, and he now enters 2021 with the most talented and explosive WR duos he's had in his entire career. With the Titan's defense as poor as it is, and the Cardinals expected to score a ton on the other side, we believe both Julio and A.J. Brown (see below) will feast in game where both wide receivers could push for 75+ yards a piece with a ceiling of 100+ receiving yards. Don't overthink such a concentrated passing attack with elite levels of efficiency to boot. You might never see a Julio prop this low again. Buy price: 63.5 yards
A.J. Brown OVER 67.5 Receiving Yards @ PointsBet -115
With Malcolm Butler unexpectedly retiring, we expect for A.J. Brown to see a lot of Robert Alford in a great spot. Under defensive coordinator Vance Joseph Arizona has relied mostly on press coverage and an above average blitz rate, leaving it undermanned in the back levels of its secondary, and despite losing Arthur Smith the Titans still promoted their new OC from within after operating at the fourth-fastest pace in 2020 with the third-most no-huddle plays. They also had the seventh-most combined snaps (131.7) and their defense ranked ninth worst in both points allowed per game and yards allowed per play, Titans games averaged a combined/league high 58.1 points and were expecting a shootout here. Play both Tennessee alpha WR's with confidence here and don't be afraid to double stack them with Tannehill in DFS. The trio could win a lot of GPP's this weekend in surprisingly low-owned build. Buy price: 68.5 yards
Javonte Williams OVER 6.5 Rushing Attempts @ BetMGM -135
We brought this one up earlier in the week and to be frank, most books don't even have this available, so kudos to MGM for hanging the line here. We have the rookie Javonte Williams projected for 10+ carries and he could possibly even outwork Melvin Gordon herre, who is currently lined at 12.5 carries at most shops. This one is good to up to -150, buy price up to 8.5 rushing attempts if the juice is solid. BetOnline currently has 7.5 for -149, which we also like. Look for Williams to be a fantasy trade target sooner rather than later.
Rondale Moore OVER 2.5 Receptions @ DraftKings -150
FanDuel had this at -188 at the time of posting in our Discord channel, while BetOnline didn't even have it available despite listing prop lines for all other primary Arizona Cardinals pass catchers. We cannot even begin to tell you how wrong this line is and would also bet over 3.5 if we could at normal juice. Our best guess is this won't be anything near this/available by kickoff for a rookie stud wideout in Moore who Arizona aggressively drafted and will have the opportunity to soak up a large share of the 104 targets left behind by Larry Fitzgerald (now retired) and Kenyan Drake (now with the Las Vegas Raiders). Moore's aDOT will be low and his routes will be shallow, but the projected will give him a nice floor even in DFS, fitting perfectly with Murray and Kingsbury's style. We expect Moore to be a fantasy darling all year and he gets a mouthwatering matchup with the Titans' porous secondary here in Week 1. Buy price: 3.5 receptions
Emmanuel Sanders OVER 33.5 Receiving Yards @ DraftKings -115
We have Sanders projected for around 44.5 yards for Week 1 and wouldn't be surprised if Sanders' line becomes 50+ in a matter of a week or so. Sanders was brought into Buffalo to be the team's clear #2 WR in the most pass happy offense in the entire AFC and NFL for that matter. This line is just simply incorrect, but we're getting value here because of the 'questionable' tag currently put on Sanders heading into this Week 1 contest. Reality is that Sanders has dealt with a minor foot injury all preseason but still suited up and played then. While he could be limited here and eased in, the low total of 33.3 for Josh Allen's #2 target is too good to pass up and Sanders gets a slight motivational boost here with a revenge game against his former team/quarterback. If healthy, Sanders goes for 50+ in this spot. Buy price: 38.5 yards
Quez Watkins OVER 23.5 Receiving Yards @ DraftKings -115
The Philadelphia Eagles' speedy wideout could be due for a second year breakout campaign. He's run with the starters all offseason and totaled 40/57 yards in his two full starts with Jalen Hurts last season. The fact Reagor, Goedert and Smith are all lined so much higher (almost double) than Quez Watkins is flat out wrong based off our target/volume projections. Take the value here for the what could be the Eagles' number one deep threat all season long in a dream matchup vs. the Atlanta Falcons. Buy price: 25.5 yards
Raheem Mostert UNDER 16.5 Rushing Attempts @ DraftKings -115
Mostert has gone under this total in 21 of his past 23 regular season games and we expect potential blowout game script for San Francisco will give way to the rookie Trey Sermon more getting work late as well to keep Mostert healthy/fresh. Expect Mostert to start but not finish here in a matchup where the 49'ers are listed as massive -9.5 road favorites and have no reason to run their veteran running back into the ground. Look for Mostert to mostly rest in the second half of this one. Buy price: 15.5 rushing attempts
Antonio Brown OVER 50.5 Receiving Yards @ FoxBet -125
Disclaimer, we gave this out on our private Discord channel for subscribers when this line was available earlier in the week and recommended playing it up to 53.5 yards. Currently we have Brown projected for 60/61 yards and still believe there is value on the current DraftKings number of 54.5 (-115). Due to this being an island game and lines typically sharper with standalone games, this is currently our only "best bet" player prop of the night. We will have many more when it comes to our full Sunday main slate this week and moving forward, as well as early Discord props for primetime games when lines first drop.
CeeDee Lamb OVER 60.5 Receiving Yards @ FoxBet -125
As mentioned earlier in our private Discord channel for subscribers, Dallas led the league in situation-neutral pass rate last season right around 64%, and it increased to 67% when trailing with Kellen Moore/Dak Prescott healthy. We don't see the Cowboys being able to slow play this thing with Zeke for long tonight, meaning that while Zeke could get there and hit his overs based on stubborn volume alone, Lamb in the slot will be a safety blanket for Dak all night while Cooper/Gallup operate mostly on the outside and have tough sledding to get open looks as Dallas's makeshift offensive line struggles mightily.