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By Steve Rieder
We are less than one week away from the NFL's 2022 Kickoff Game at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California. The excitement surrounding Week 1 is palpable. This is the time of the year when your favorite NFL team feels they legitimately have a shot win it all. It is also the time of the year that bettors salivate over, six straight months of NFL wagering opportunities. All of my regular season handicapping begins with my power ratings. They are by far the most valuable piece of information I consider each week when starting to choose my best bets to make. Below are my power ratings versus 2022's Week 1 lines.
BUF @ LAR (+2.5)
PR: LAR (+0.75)
There has been significant movement in this line since news broke that Stafford has been dealing with an elbow injury. He has been practicing sparingly in the weeks since and it is difficult to gauge how much of an impact, if any, it will have on the opener. I’m presenting nearly 2 points of value based on my power ratings, but without an understanding to the extent of the injury and with the Bills being my #1 power rated team, I’m going to be patient and wait for better opportunities. If there are positive reports leading up to the game, a teaser is always a possibility as well. Home dogs in Wong teasers tend to be extremely profitable.
BAL @ NYJ (+7)
PR: NYJ (+6.25)
I made a significant play on BAL -4 at the openers (is it past posting if I tweeted it out?!) and that number kept rising throughout the summer. It finally rested at 7 after news broke of the Zach Wilson’s season-ending injury. There are some reports that Flacco has run the offense better than Wilson, but that is setting a low bar. Joe Flacco’s immobility should prove to be a problem against the blitz-happy Ravens. Baltimore tends to perform well in openers despite an overtime loss to LV last year. However, there is reason to expect some regression in that department after Harbaugh has played this preseason cautiously and not given the starters much, if any, preseason snaps. With that being said, I think the matchup and the talent favors the Ravens. A few books are still dealing BAL -6.5, which I’d be interested in if I had no skin in the game. Otherwise, I’d look to play BAL in a teaser with other popular candidates (SF, CLE, MIN, DAL, HOU, NE).
NO @ ATL (+5)
PR: ATL (+6.25)
This is another game that I’ve bet heavily on. I have tickets on NO -3, -3.5, -4, and -4.5 (also tweeted out!). I really thought this number would close 6.5/7, and it still may. But I’m less bullish on that prospect recently. Winston is battling a foot injury (although he should be good for Week 1) and the Falcons quarterbacks don’t look completely anemic like expected. I do think both are more noise than news. Winston should be back to full strength for Week 1 and Mariota and Ridder have been competing against 2nd and 3rd teamers. The Saints have a ton of talent on this roster including a healthy Michael Thomas and first round pick Chris Olave at wide receiver. The new coaching staff should bring in some schemes and wrinkles that haven’t been seen or can be gameplanned for. NO -5.5 or better is worth a look.
NE @ MIA (-3)
PR: MIA (-2.25)
This is not a game that I feel great about either way. There has been a lot of optimism in Miami’s camp with their new weapons and coaching staff and some concerns leaking out of New England this offseason. Many will note that Bill Belichick performs worse in September than any other month, but a large part of his process with Tom Brady was chess, not checkers. He was playing the long game. With TB12 in Tampa and the division much improved, the margin for error is much smaller for the Patriots. Belicheck can no longer afford to lower his chance of winning, particularly against a division rival. Miami is a young, exciting team, with a new head coach. The narrative is there to continue to drive this number up to 3.5, but I'm happy taking the field goal now.
CLE @ CAR (-2.5)
PR: CAR (-0.25)
To no surprise, this number has moved after Watson’s original 8 game suspension and the subsequent 11. Although I’m not the least bit surprised it moved, I think the market was already accounting for Watson’s suspension. There wasn’t a single sharp bettor that didn’t have his absence baked into the line already. Even though the Browns will be without their starting signal caller, they still have one of the best rosters in league. Yet somehow, the Panthers, with an inferior coach, roster, and quarterback, one that was just jettisoned by the Browns, are laying points. 0 is practically worthless in the NFL regular/post season, so it’s not a substantial move, but there is some value with CLE. The line opened CLE -4.5. It has moved 6 points, through the key number of 3, based on information we had months ago. It is Browns or pass for me.
PIT @ CIN (-6.5)
PR: CIN (-6)
I think it is fair to say that CIN overachieved last year. They went on a remarkable run, avoided injuries, and took advantage of an easy schedule. The market is down on the Bengals coming into this year despite being in the Super Bowl six months ago. Yet they are still laying nearly a touchdown against a division rival. I don’t have a great feel for either team in this contest, but if it gets to a touchdown, I’ll be on the Steelers in some way, shape, or form. Tomlin consistently gets his team ready to play. The public may perceive losing Big Ben as a net negative, I’m not so sure. Regardless of who starts at quarterback, the offensive playbook should be more open than it was last year.
SF @ CHI (+7)
PR: CHI (+5.5)
If you told me the Bears were the worst team in the NFL at season's end, I don’t think anyone would be shocked. Justin Fields' talent is up for debate, but there certainly isn’t any at his skill positions. With a new front office and coaching staff with no ties to Justin Fields, they could be looking for a full reset and prioritize the future rather than this year. On the other hand, the 49ers are poised to make another run. Their roster talent is undeniable, but they will only go as far as Trey Lance can take them. He is certainly more of a boom or bust quarterback, which makes San Fran extremely volatile this year. At the moment, I have no stock in this game. I’ll be patient in hopes a rogue -6.5 appears, but I think it's far more likely this number closes -8 or higher.
PHI @ DET (+4)
PR: DET (+4.5)
This has to be one of the best Hard Knocks in years. Dan Campbell is out of his mind entertaining and the highlights have been quite impressive. With every episode that airs, we can be sure more money will be bet on Detroit. This number has started to leak down with some -3.5 starting to populate. There is an outside chance it may crash down to PHI just laying a field goal. If so, you can fully expect a best bet from me. Philadelphia, like Detroit, has had major backing in the marketplace both in division odds and their win total. The difference is, the sharps have been slamming Philadelphia. The late Lions movement is more public inspired. With the addition of AJ Brown, the Eagles offense is pick your poison. I’ll fade the overreaction if opportunity presents.
IND @ HOU (+8)
PR: HOU (+8.25)
In their two meetings last season, the Colts beat the Texans by a combined score of 62-3. This offseason, the Colts have improved their quarterback position with Matt Ryan and kept the rest of the roster relatively status quo. Conversely, Houston hasn’t made any substantial improvements to their roster. There are some pundits clamoring that Davis Mills is an average starting quarterback. Count me as skeptical. Without reason to expect any change, I have to back the Colts here. I’ll wait to see if there are some unexpected Texan backers that might drive the number down, but I doubt that comes to fruition. I may split my action by laying the points and playing the teaser.
JAX @ WAS (-3)
PR: WAS (-3.25)
This is one of the larger disparities in my power ratings, but that doesn’t make it actionable. In fact, I grabbed some JAX +3.5 as the market crashed. I don’t really know what to make of either of these teams. Washington could be a decent ball club, but they need to rely on Carson Wentz who just got kicked out of his last two cities. The Jaguars could see a significant spike in production just based on their coaching hire. I’ll feel a lot more confident betting on or against these teams as the season progresses. With that being said, if you like JAX, I’d take the field goal now. I think this number closes -2 / -2.5.
KC @ ARI (+4.5)
PR: ARI (+2.75)
This is another time I am bucking my power ratings. So much has been made of KC’s difficult schedule and division, that we have seen a lot of sharp money (and rightfully so) come on their under. I’ve heard media members ponder how they will be able to generate offense without Tyreek Hill. Some defenses were even able to scheme ways to slow Mahomes down last season. All of this generated value in this line, which is quickly disappearing. Andy Reid always has his teams playing well from the jump, which is something the Cardinals typically can say as well. The Cards perform much better early in the year, but this offseason has been tumultuous. I’m not sure what Arizona will give us week 1, but I’m fairly confident in the production we will get from the Chiefs. I’d lay the 3 sooner than later.
LV @ LAC (-3.5)
PR: LAC (-4.5)
The Chargers don’t have much of a home field advantage to begin with, but it's basically null at this point against the Raiders who are returning to their old home. LAC is poised to make a push this season with talent across the board. The Raiders are coming off a year where they were extremely lucky, particularly in one score games. Those results tend to gravitate back toward league average. There was some sharp action on the Raiders and I’m surprisingly seeing some reason to suspect this number actually goes to 3. If so, I’ll be on the Chargers. Otherwise, its a straight pass for me.
GB @ MIN (+2)
PR: MIN (Pick)
The Vikings needed a shake up after a disappointing season last year. They got one in Kevin O’Connell who replaced Mike Zimmer. It is expected that he will open up the downfield passing game much more so than the previous regime, which should bear better results. Green Bay lost its best, perhaps only, wide receiver threat in Davante Adams this offseason. Romeo Doubs has impressed this offseason, but those are big shoes to fill. The Packers should lean on the run game more so than they have in the past. I made a substantial amount of money backing the Vikings in teasers and I’ll surely be using them Week 1. With that being said, I’m not entirely sure what this market will do. The leading indicator books seem to be split on this game.
NYG @ TEN (-5.5)
PR: TEN (-4.5)
I gave this play out as a best bet. The write up is below. I pass at +5.5, but there are still some sixes on the board.
Week 1: NYG +6 Widely Available
My Power Ratings only make the game TEN -5.5, which in itself isn't actionable. But this matchup and situation significantly favors the Giants.
Even the casual fan knows Derrick Henry is the engine to the TEN offense. He has given new meaning to the term bell-cow. Despite his heavy usage year after year, he seemingly is able to live up to the hype. After a productive start to the year, an injury cut his regular season short. He returned for a playoff game against the Bengals, but was held to 3.1 YPC. How healthy his broken foot is remains to be seen, but there are concerns beyond the injury. His season attempts over the two seasons prior were absolutely massive. There are legitimate questions about how much he has left in the tank. With WRs AJ Brown and Julio Jones no longer with the organization, there is even more opportunity for defenses to key on stopping the run. Even with AJ Brown, Henry has been borderline ineffective in Week 1 contests, (from 2021-2016: 3.4 ypc, 3.7, 4.4, 2.6, 4.2, 0.6). Henry rush yards may be a prop we exploit when the time comes. Cornerbacks are the weakest part of the Giants defense, but without a WR1, the Titans could find it difficult to move the ball even with the dearth of talent in NY's secondary.
NYG sees a big improvement, not in personnel, but in the coaching staff. Moving on from Joe Judge and Jason Garrett to basically anyone is a net positive. But Daboll and Dorsey come from 2 systems that have thrived running NFL offenses., which will be a huge makeover for the archaic stylings of the past regime. Daniel Jones isn't Josh Allen, but he's a much better quarterback than he's shown in his short tenure. With an improved offensive line and healthy skill position, the Giants could find themselves an average O. Defensively Wink's proven blitzing scheme will cover up the deficiencies.
I fully expect the Giants to keep it within the number.
TB @ DAL (-1)
PR: DAL (0.75)
With the Buccaneers offensive line injuries, I’m looking for opportunities to fade the Bucs early and often, but I’m also not high on Dallas, who have their own offensive line problems. Without much of an opinion at the current line, I will say that I’ve played under both teams’ win total, but most of the market has caught up. Where there still is value is in the Game of the Year lines. I’d look to fade TB Week 2 and 3.
DEN @ SEA (+6)
PR: (SEA +7)
I am not sure Denver will reach their ceiling this year, which is a Super Bowl contender, but I’m fairly confident their floor is an above average team. Conversely, when your two options at quarterback are Geno Smith and Drew Lock, I’m not sure there is reason for optimism. This line opened up at DEN -3.5 (also tweeted this out!) and has slowly moved up to the current market after it was apparent there would be no quarterback acquired in a trade. Grabbing one of the few rogue DEN -5.5 is still certainly a bet I’d make. Once the public starts getting involved, I wouldn’t be shocked if we see this close -6.5 or 7. Right now the leading indicator books are split between -6 and -5.5, however.
Our Early Bird NFL Premium Package is Now Available for the 2022 season! The Betting Predators NFL Premium Package was created to give you with the highest-quality betting + player prop analysis. We're here to help you save time, win money, and become a long-term profitable sports bettor. Our team of analysts, led by Steve Rieder and Chris Dell, deliver real-time best bets and player prop analysis, every week, to make sure you crush your sportsbook. Get $20 OFF with code NFL20 for our best price all year.