Our NFL Premium Package is Now Available for the 2022 season! Get full access to our best bets, given out early in the week, in real time: sides, totals, player props, and more, all in one place, through the end of the Super Bowl.
Buffalo Bills +19.3 Pass Block at Detroit Lions
At +19.3 Buffalo has the biggest offensive advantage this week at pass blocking. Detroits pass rush is ranked dead last this week according to our NFL Betting/Props Cheat Sheet. The Lions are last at pass rush win rate according to ESPN, Pro Football Focus has Detroits pass rush ranked 30th, and Football Outsiders has the Lions pass rush ranked 29th. Only one of the Lions front seven pass rushers ranks above average at pass rush, linebackers Malcolm Rodriguez who is ranked seventh out of 54.
Buffalo is ranked seventh by both Football Outsiders for pass blocking and ESPNs pass block win rate metric. Pro Football Focus ranks the Bills offensive line pass blocking lower at 19. PFF emphasizes their points by ranking four of Buffalo's five offensive linemen average to below average at pass blocking. Buffalos tackle Dion Dawkins grades highest at pass blocking, 14 out of 76.
Dallas Cowboys +19 Run Block vs New York Giants
Both offensive lines in the Cowboys/Giants games will be carving up the other teams front seven according to our NFL Betting/Props Cheat Sheet. The Cowboys are #1 in our run blocking average while the Giants rank 12th.
Dallas is ranked #1 by Football Outsiders at run blocking, second at run block win rate by ESPN, and 13th by Pro Football Focus. ESPN has three individual Cowboy linemen in the top ten for their RBWR metric. Tackle Tyler Smith ranks fourth, center Tyler Bladasz ranks ninth, and guard Zack Martin ranks 10th. PFF isn't as kind in their individual grades, as their grade of 13th at run blocking as a whole unit is the lowest of the three ranking. Only guard Zack Martin has an above average grade as he ranks fifth out of 82 guards.
The Giants pass rushing front seven is a mess. Football Outsiders ranks them the highest at 21, while ESPN ranks New York’s run stop win rate the lowest at 28. The lone bright star for the G-Men is defensive tackle Leonard Williams who ranks ninth overall at run stop win rate for ESPN. Williams also has the third highest grade at run stop according to PFF. Surprisingly PFF also grades defensive tackle Dextor Lawrence 4th out of 132 and edge rusher Oshane Ximines 23rd out of 110.
New York Giants +14 Run Block at Dallas Cowboys
The Giants offensive line has been a mess, losing some important players throughout the the season but they have managed to keep playing at a high level. Football Outsiders ranks the G-Men the second best offensive line, while ESPN and Pro Football Focus are not as kind. PFF grades the Giants oline 17th and ESPN ranks New York's run block win rate at 21. PFF grades NYG tackle Andrew Thomas eighth at run blocking out of 74.
The Cowboys run defense rankings seems to get worse and worse every week. Football Outsiders has the highest rank at 25th, followed by PFF at 27, and ESPN has the Cowboys ranked 30th at run stop win rate. The two best defensive players for the Cowboys in their front seven is edge rushers Micah Parsons and Demarcus Lawrence both did not practice on Monday, Parsons was limited on Tuesday and Lawrence was DNP again. If neither play the Giants should have no problem running the straight at the Cowboys.
New York Giants -20.7 at Dallas Cowboys Pass Rush
Beware! I write this article as if both Micah Parsons and Demarcus Lawrence are both playing.
The Dallas Cowboys once again are the #1 pass rushing defense according to our NFL Betting/Props Cheat Sheet. Ranked #1 by both Pro Football Focus and Football Outsiders and the Cowboys pass rush win rate is third in the NFL according to ESPN. ESPN also ranks edge rusher Micah Parsons as the #1 pass rush win rate edge rusher in the NFL. Parsons is also graded as the second best edge pass rusher according to PFF.
The Giants offensive line ranked below average according to our NFL Betting/Props Cheat Sheet. PFF grades the Giants 18th and ESPN has their pass block win rate at 19. Football Outsiders ranks New York near the bottom, 31st. The Giants will be without four of their offensive linemen this week, three of them are starters. The one lone bright spot on this injury riddled line is tackle Andrew Thomas who PFF ranks second at pass blocking out of 76 other tackles.
New England Patriots -9 at Minnesota Vikings Run Defense
- Patriots run blocking 15th PFF, 27th FO, 32nd ESPN
- Vikings run defense 2nd PFF, 27th FO, 18th ESPN
Minnesota Vikings +9 Run Block vs New England Patriots
- Vikings run blocking 3rd PFF, 24th FO, 10th ESPN
- Patriots run defense 18th PFF, 31st FO, 15th ESPN
By Ben Martinez & Chris Dell
Want to have direct access to our network of Betting Predators handicappers? Sign up for our FREE Discord channel to get 24/7 direct access to our handicapping team, as well as our community of sharp bettors
Want an easy to find all of our Betting Predators content in one place? Sign up for our free newsletter, Substack and receive a weekly roundup on everything we've published (FREE + PREMIUM), and all that we're up to throughout the week. We promise we'll never give your email address out for advertising purposes.