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#3 Milwaukee Bucks vs. #6 Indiana Pacers
The Bucks' chances have taken a major hit with the news that they may be without 2x MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo to start the series. Milwaukee has gone from being heavily favored (~-200 range) to a virtual 50/50 proposition at most sportsbooks. A 50/50 proposition is familiar ground for Milwaukee; the Bucks have struggled with consistency this season, going only .500 under new head coach Doc Rivers. Bucks brass must be questioning the wisdom of cutting bait early on first-time head coach Adrian Griffin who, despite a dreadful defensive start, had an impressive 30-13 record.
The Pacers have all the momentum entering this match-up, winning 4 of 5 games in this season series. The Pacers started out as an offense-only team under Rick Carlisle in his first two seasons, but have now added defense to their repertoire, bringing in Pascal Siakam at the trade deadline and elevating defensive specialist Andrew Nembhard into the starting rotation midseason. The Pacers ranked as a league-average defense since the All-Star break, after being a bottom 4 team in that department each of the last two years and at the start of this season.
Many are predicting a rare first-round upset in this matchup, a sentiment reflected in the odds shift. However, the Bucks still have two factors in their advantage: a strong home court, and far more playoff experience. Doc Rivers is only rivaled by Mike D'Antoni in terms of Game 6 and Game 7 futility in recent seasons. However, if he is able to get Giannis back early rather than later, he does have the know-how to press his superior talent advantage. Rick Carlisle, on the other hand, hasn't won a first playoff series since he won the championship in 2011, going 0-6 in first-round series since.
Prediction: Bucks in 6 (*my read is that Giannis will come back by Game 3*)
#4 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. #5 Orlando Magic
The Magic have little playoff experience, while the Cavs' coach needs a series win to keep his job. Similar to the Pacers/Bucks match-up, the Cavs have the clear talent advantage on paper, while the upstart Magic have a more promising future with their new stars playing their first playoff series together.
Paolo Banchero has been a volume scorer for the Magic, but advanced metrics suggest he may not be as efficient as his raw numbers indicate. The Cavs' elite interior defense could pose problems for the young Magic star.
Estimated Plus Minus grades Banchero out as a slightly positive player overall, adding +0.7 points of value to his team per that trusted metric. The classic Player Efficiency Rating (PER) also says Banchero - despite his volume scoring - only has average efficiency with a PER of 17.0 this season (15 is average). Paolo is only in his second season, but I think it's premature to say he's one of the league's difference-makers, and he will likely struggle against the Cavs' elite interior defense.
For comparison, the Magic's presumptive second-best player, Franz Wagner, has been ice cold all season from 3, has an estimated plus-minus of +3.5 points, and a PER of 17.6. The Magic likely need Wagner to snap out of his shooting slump to win this series, but the rest of his game this season has been impressive, and he is arguably still the Magic's best player.
The Cavs' offense has faltered in the second half of the season as Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland have struggled to find chemistry, similar to the issues in Atlanta with Dejounte Murray and Trae Young. This series could come down to which team's star duo can find their rhythm.
Prediction: Cavs in 7
#3 Minnesota Timberwolves vs. #6 Phoenix Suns
The Suns have dominated the Timberwolves in the regular season, winning all three matchups by double digits, including an impressive road blowout in the season's final game. History suggests that teams who have won their last three regular-season games against an opponent by 10+ points are 6-0 straight up in Game 1 of their series. Notably all previous instances of this the team in the Suns position had been favorites, whereas Phoenix is a slight dog here. I think this is a prime example of market taking far too much stock in the regular season - although we have seen money come in on Phoenix since this series opened as a pick'em.
The Timberwolves' defensive strategy of forcing teams into difficult midrange shots is not well-suited to beat the Suns, who are one of the league's best midrange shooting teams. If Devin Booker and Kevin Durant get going, the Timberwolves will have a hard time keeping up.
The Wolves win by forcing teams into difficult shots, giving up the most midrange jump shots in the NBA. That is not an effective strategy against the Suns, who scored the 2nd most midrange shots in the NBA. If you dare Devin Booker and Kevin Durant to beat you, they will. The key to beating the Suns is to force the other players to beat them and outscore them. The Wolves are elite defensively overall, but their strengths are not well-tailored to beat this type of micro-focused veteran offense.
Prediction: Suns in 6 (*Take the Suns -130; if they lose Game 1, then take the Suns at plus money*)
#2 Denver Nuggets vs. #7 Los Angeles Lakers
The Nuggets have won their last 8 matchups against the Lakers, including a sweep in last year's Western Conference Finals and all three regular-season games this season. Denver has also covered the spread in their last 5 meetings with LA.
The reason is clear - the Lakers have built their team around defense, but the Nuggets' diverse, fast-paced offense led by Nikola Jokic is too much for even the best defenses to handle. When the Lakers' offense is struggling, as it has been for the past two seasons, the Nuggets can eventually outscore them.
This will be the rubber match between LeBron & AD vs. Jokic & Murray, after the Lakers took the Western Conference Finals in the bubble. Since then, the league has only gone more in the direction of what the Nuggets do best - flawless offense; and Jokic has continued to take his game to another stratosphere, clearly the best player in this series.
Prediction: Nuggets in 5
#2 New York Knicks vs. #7 Philadelphia 76ers
The Knicks and 76ers split their regular-season series 2-2, with each team winning both of their home games. The Knicks had a strong regular season, finishing second in the East, while the 76ers struggled with injuries and inconsistency, ultimately securing the 7th seed.
Embiid put up jaw-dropping efficiency numbers, particularly improving his facilitating game this season. However, he has had an up-and-down go of it since returning from injury. If Embiid is 100% by the midpoint of this series, the Knicks simply don't have the horses to keep up, particularly since losing Julius Randle.
While Randle has been a very disappointing post-season player, replacing him with nothing but intensity, defense and Jalen Brunson is simply not a recipe for a long playoff run. Brunson could score 40 a game and the Knicks still might lack the firepower in this match-up if Embiid is playing at his typical mid-season MVP level.
Historically, Thibodeau-led teams have struggled to maintain their elite defense in the playoffs. In the playoff, rotations shorten and Thibs screaming and playing his players 40+ minutes doesn't provide the same competitive advantage in a scenario where everyone on the court is fully locked in. The Knicks have the personnel to make life difficult for the 76ers' stars, but Embiid and Maxey can take over games when they're at their best.
Prediction: Sixers in 6
#4 Los Angeles Clippers vs. #5 Dallas Mavericks
This first-round matchup between the Mavericks and Clippers has the makings of another epic playoff series between these two teams. Over the past few years, they have faced off in two thrilling postseason battles, with the Clippers coming out on top both times.
However, the momentum heading into this year's series seems to be with the Mavericks. Money has come in on Dallas, making them a rare lower-seeded favorite at about -130 after opening at a Pick'em. The logic behind the odds move is clear - these teams are going in opposite directions.
The Mavericks have been an elite team since the All-Star break, posting the third-best net rating in the league over that stretch, only behind Boston & Denver, the title favorites. In contrast, the Clippers have lost all of their momentum, with their defense falling off significantly in the second half of the season. Head coach Ty Lue even made headlines called his team "soft" in March, a lambasting the team did not particularly respond to.
Mavericks guard, Luka Doncic, still only 25 years old, has continued to improve his efficiency numbers in both the regular season and each playoff run he has made. He will be determined to not let his team lose to the Clippers for a third time in the postseason. Doncic has proven to be a dominant force, and now has an outlet in Kyrie Irving to prevent the Clippers elite defensive wings from bearing down on him. Over his career and particularly in this match-up, Luka has often had big first halves, before being slowed down as fatigue has become more of a factor. Doncic needs to prove he can finish games with the same intensity against the league's best defenses.
While the Clippers boast a talented roster led by Kawhi Leonard, the Mavericks' recent form and Luka's continued ascension make them the rightful favorites in this series. If Dallas can maintain their strong two-way play, they may finally be able to get over the hump and eliminate the Clippers, who have had their number in recent years.
Prediction: Mavericks in 7
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